10 Saint Paul Pl · Manchester, NJ 08759

$299,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1981 6,098 sqft lot $210/sqft · 16% below area Est $357k · 16% under $234/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HEATHER-BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED W/ LGE FAMILY RM W/ TWO SKYLIGHTS-KITCHEN UPGRADED W/ NEW WINDOWS, RECESS LIGHTING, CEILING FAN, MANNINGTON FLOORING- ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS, ALUMINUM FACING, BRICK FRONT, WALKWAY/SIDE, NEW DISH- WASHER, MANY EXTRAS INSULATED GARAGE DOOR W/ OPENER, UPGRADED MBR BATH, 3 ADDITIONAL CEILING FANS, MINT CONDITION

Key facts

• Chipping green
• Pickleball courts
• Large pool

Tags

• LARGE POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• PUTTING GREEN
• CHIPPING GREEN
• FISHING FROM GAZEBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee covers lawn maintenance and pool; Association name: Leisure Knoll

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Heather; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Located in the Leisure Knoll subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; No fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,084 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,203
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -16.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Saint Paul Pl	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,426 (0%)	1mo	$292,500	$205	99
13 Newbury Row	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,426 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$210	89
63 Sandhurst St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,426 (0%)	1mo	$289,500	$203	87
27 Cromwell Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	1mo	$282,000	$197	67
29A Gramercy Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,486 (+4%)	2mo	$232,000	$156	66
15 Normanton Ave	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,267 (-11%)	0mo	$330,000	$260	65
569B Mayfair Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,602 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	64
21A Buckingham Dr N	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-3%)	1mo	$385,000	$279	64
655-A Pulham Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-13%)	2mo	$225,000	$181	62
9 Romford Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,616 (+13%)	1mo	$337,500	$209	62
64A Cambridge Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,605 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$178	57
707 Wooton Ct Unit C	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,602 (+12%)	0mo	$329,900	$206	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,105
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-62,335
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,439/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$234
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $273,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-67	+0% $-152	+5% $-237	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-260	+0% $-152	+5% $-45	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-76	base $-152	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	0.38mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	0.44mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	45d	1	0.81mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.11mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	4d	1	1.22mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.23mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $234 · $2,808/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 484-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $299,900 Active 484-char remark
3. 1999-09-10
   soldstatus $105,000
4. 1999-09-04
   soldstatus $105,000 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   HEATHER-BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED W/ LGE FAMILY RM W/ TWO SKYLIGHTS-KITCHEN UPGRADED W/ NEW WINDOWS, RECESS LIGHTING, CEILING FAN, MANNINGTON FLOORING- ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS, ALUMINUM FACING, BRICK FRONT, WALKWAY/SIDE, NEW DISH- WASHER, MANY EXTRAS INSULATED GARAGE DOOR W/ OPENER, UPGRADED MBR BATH, 3 ADDITIONAL CEILING FANS, MINT CONDITION

5. 1999-06-28
   historical 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   HEATHER-BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED W/ LGE FAMILY RM W/ TWO SKYLIGHTS-KITCHEN UPGRADED W/ NEW WINDOWS, RECESS LIGHTING, CEILING FAN, MANNINGTON FLOORING- ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS, ALUMINUM FACING, BRICK FRONT, WALKWAY/SIDE, NEW DISH- WASHER, MANY EXTRAS INSULATED GARAGE DOOR W/ OPENER, UPGRADED MBR BATH, 3 ADDITIONAL CEILING FANS, MINT CONDITION

6. 1999-05-15
   listed $105,900 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   HEATHER-BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED W/ LGE FAMILY RM W/ TWO SKYLIGHTS-KITCHEN UPGRADED W/ NEW WINDOWS, RECESS LIGHTING, CEILING FAN, MANNINGTON FLOORING- ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS, ALUMINUM FACING, BRICK FRONT, WALKWAY/SIDE, NEW DISH- WASHER, MANY EXTRAS INSULATED GARAGE DOOR W/ OPENER, UPGRADED MBR BATH, 3 ADDITIONAL CEILING FANS, MINT CONDITION

7. 1981-06-01
   soldstatus $73,149

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,439 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,953 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,514/yr (+$126/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,439
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,612
• − Management: −$2,612
• − HOA: −$2,808
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Knoll, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+299.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $292,500 Public Records
• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $292,500 MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 1999-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-04 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MOMLS
• 1999-06-28 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-05-15 Listed $105,900 MOMLS
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,149 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,439 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.