129 Havana Glen Rd. Rd · Montour Falls, NY 14865

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,129 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot Est $119k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Village of Montour Falls—just a short walk to beautiful Havana Glen Park! Step inside to find a spacious layout with many updates throughout. The large kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and entertaining. The first floor features two comfortable bedrooms and a full bath with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious bedroom with a beautifully remodeled full bathroom featuring a relaxing soaker tub. The fenced-in backyard is perfect for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings. A large garage provides great storage and could easily be finished for extra living or hobby space. With its mix of charm, updates,

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Fenced-in backyard
• Soaker tub

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• REMODELED FULL BATHROOM
• SOAKER TUB
• LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($990/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#786 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Odessa-Montour Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #383 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B C Cate Elementary School (239 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Schuyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Schuyler County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,559 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,545
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Havana Glen Rd. Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,129 (0%)	1mo	$118,000	$105	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,125
• Equity at exit: $64,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $83,529
• Equity at exit: $106,510

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14865

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,000/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2025-12-11
   status Active
4. 2025-10-31
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-10-15
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 55.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,000
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa-Montour Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621630
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,720
• Composite: 42.81/100
• National rank: #3142
• State rank: #383 of 590 in NY

Livability — Montour Falls

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #15104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montour Falls, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,578

Population outlook (Schuyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,999 people
• By 2030: 17,676 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 16,586 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 15,322 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 13,004 · -27.8%
• By 2100: 10,752 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuyler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 39.5% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.1pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+17.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+7.9 2008: R+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $125,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Relisted — IBRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $125,000 IBRMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,000 · -68.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.