3104 Fox Hill Dr · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$639,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $533/sqft · at area comps Est $646k · at est. $550/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the simple life here at The Vistas at Baiting Hollow. The best of all worlds on the North Fork. A Sound-front community with private beach access nestled on the Baiting Hollow Golf Course with incredible views. 3104 Fox Hill Drive boasts complete one level living and many upgrades throughout. The entire unit is ADA accessible. 9 Ft Ceilings, shiplap wainscoting, laminate flooring, crown molding, all stainless appliances. Gas Range for cooking in the ample sized kitchen with wrap around quartz countertops. Perfect for meal preparation and ease of entertaining. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the unit with golf course views and rear patio access. The primary ensuite has a glass standing shower. The second bedroom is at the front of the unit with the ample second full bath with tub in hall. The community itself is private and quiet with sound beach access, large community pool, bocce, tennis, pickleball, clubhouse and newly renovated fitness center. Pet friendly. Located just minutes from town center and ample shopping, dining and entertainment. An easy commute to highways and especially the North and South Forks. Make this home yours! Just drop your bags and go!

Key facts

• Private beach access
• Large community pool
• Golf course views

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• GLASS STANDING SHOWER
• LARGE COMMUNITY POOL
• PET FRIENDLY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $639k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $639k).
• Recommended offer: $620k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($620k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $619,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $645,515
• List price: $639,000
• Delta: -1.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $170,749
• Equity at exit: $296,708

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $478,693
• Equity at exit: $464,697

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,130/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $1,330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,816

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	24d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

   Enjoy the simple life here at The Vistas at Baiting Hollow. The best of all worlds on the North Fork. A Sound-front community with private beach access nestled on the Baiting Hollow Golf Course with incredible views. 3104 Fox Hill Drive boasts complete one level living and many upgrades throughout. The entire unit is ADA accessible. 9 Ft Ceilings, shiplap wainscoting, laminate flooring, crown molding, all stainless appliances. Gas Range for cooking in the ample sized kitchen with wrap around quartz countertops. Perfect for meal preparation and ease of entertaining. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the unit with golf course views and rear patio access. The primary ensuite has a glass standing shower. The second bedroom is at the front of the unit with the ample second full bath with tub in hall. The community itself is private and quiet with sound beach access, large community pool, bocce, tennis, pickleball, clubhouse and newly renovated fitness center. Pet friendly. Located just minutes from town center and ample shopping, dining and entertainment. An easy commute to highways and especially the North and South Forks. Make this home yours! Just drop your bags and go!

2. 2026-03-31
   price $639,000 1190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

   Enjoy the simple life here at The Vistas at Baiting Hollow. The best of all worlds on the North Fork. A Sound-front community with private beach access nestled on the Baiting Hollow Golf Course with incredible views. 3104 Fox Hill Drive boasts complete one level living and many upgrades throughout. The entire unit is ADA accessible. 9 Ft Ceilings, shiplap wainscoting, laminate flooring, crown molding, all stainless appliances. Gas Range for cooking in the ample sized kitchen with wrap around quartz countertops. Perfect for meal preparation and ease of entertaining. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the unit with golf course views and rear patio access. The primary ensuite has a glass standing shower. The second bedroom is at the front of the unit with the ample second full bath with tub in hall. The community itself is private and quiet with sound beach access, large community pool, bocce, tennis, pickleball, clubhouse and newly renovated fitness center. Pet friendly. Located just minutes from town center and ample shopping, dining and entertainment. An easy commute to highways and especially the North and South Forks. Make this home yours! Just drop your bags and go!

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $679,000 Active 1190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1190 chars)

   Enjoy the simple life here at The Vistas at Baiting Hollow. The best of all worlds on the North Fork. A Sound-front community with private beach access nestled on the Baiting Hollow Golf Course with incredible views. 3104 Fox Hill Drive boasts complete one level living and many upgrades throughout. The entire unit is ADA accessible. 9 Ft Ceilings, shiplap wainscoting, laminate flooring, crown molding, all stainless appliances. Gas Range for cooking in the ample sized kitchen with wrap around quartz countertops. Perfect for meal preparation and ease of entertaining. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the unit with golf course views and rear patio access. The primary ensuite has a glass standing shower. The second bedroom is at the front of the unit with the ample second full bath with tub in hall. The community itself is private and quiet with sound beach access, large community pool, bocce, tennis, pickleball, clubhouse and newly renovated fitness center. Pet friendly. Located just minutes from town center and ample shopping, dining and entertainment. An easy commute to highways and especially the North and South Forks. Make this home yours! Just drop your bags and go!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,130 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,964 · $664/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,835/yr (+$236/mo · 55.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$5,130
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable income: $6,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $14,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in ready condo offers a good condition with modern amenities and a good curb appeal. Minor updates to paint, landscaping, and lighting can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Neutral paint colors can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhance curb appeal and add greenery
• Both Lighting — Update lighting fixtures to improve ambiance and safety
• Both Flooring — Consider updating flooring in high-traffic areas for a fresh look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Neutral paint colors can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhance curb appeal and add greenery ↑
• Both Lighting — Update lighting fixtures to improve ambiance and safety ↑
• Both Flooring — Consider updating flooring in high-traffic areas for a fresh look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $679,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,130 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.