1138 Hodges Rd · Richmond, VA 23225

$215,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1980 7,418 sqft lot Est $390k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Whether you're a growing family looking for space or an investor with a vision, with 2,192 square feet, this home has all the room you need to personalize and update to your style. This 5 bedroom, 2 full bath split-level home may be for you. While it may need some updates and TLC, the bones of this house are solid, and the possibilities are endless. Bring your vision, your contractor, and your dreams—this could be the home you've been looking for! This home will be sold as-is. Schedule your showing today, don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• 7,418 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 167 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $215k implies a 322% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,176
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5781 Swanson Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,230 (+2%)	7mo	$299,000	$134	63
1100 Lorieville Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,074 (-5%)	12mo	$370,000	$178	52
931 Green Ridge Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-4%)	20mo	$287,000	$136	51
5701 Jasonwood Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-15%)	14mo	$339,900	$182	36
5930 Ellis Woods Way	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-12%)	11mo	$349,900	$182	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,318
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,354
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23225

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,544/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $419	+0% $358	+5% $297	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $269	+0% $358	+5% $447	+10% $537
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $413	base $358	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Warwick Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	2540	$2,750	$1.08	21d	1	1.03mi
6105 Primrose Path Rd Unit 1 Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1951	$2,400	$1.23	17d	1	1.09mi
5601 Larrymore Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,960	$1.24	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-07
   status Active
3. 2025-01-22
   status Pending
4. 2025-01-11
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 1996-11-04
   soldstatus $51,000
6. 1984-06-26
   soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,544
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$212
• After-tax cash flow: $4,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103240
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,276
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5564
• State rank: #123 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, VA
• County: Richmond City · 178,280 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,771
• Household income: $62,949
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2516.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,263 people
• By 2030: 284,503 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 327,353 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 367,946 · +40.3%
• By 2075: 449,560 · +71.4%
• By 2100: 500,301 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+66.3) · D 82.0% · R 15.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 59.1pp · 2024: 66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+66.3 2020: D+68.0 2016: D+63.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -392.89%
• Current HPI: 339.408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+338.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-24 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-03-07 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-01-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 1996-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1984-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,544 · +24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.