3628 Elsa Ave · Breckenridge Hills, MO 63074

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1943 Est $132k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For sale as is by owner. No owner financing.

Key facts

• Built 1943

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($851/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#193 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $80k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.65%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3678 Elsa Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	88
3520 Wismer Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-10%)	3mo	$189,900	$184	66
3450 Wright Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	2mo	$169,000	$141	65
3551 Saint Christopher Ln	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,098 (-5%)	1mo	$94,900	$86	64
9716 Margo Ann Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,111 (-4%)	1mo	$135,000	$122	62
3904 Jane Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,263 (+10%)	4mo	$114,900	$91	60
3213 Airway Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,215 (+6%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	53
9509 Harold Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,257 (+9%)	5mo	$69,900	$56	52
3234 Lynros Ct	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,068 (-7%)	2mo	$110,000	$103	52
9406 Bataan Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,037 (-10%)	3mo	$175,000	$169	46
3203 Chaucer Ave	0.69mi	2/1.5	986 (-14%)	0mo	$144,900	$147	42
4426 Treadway Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-12%)	1mo	$114,900	$114	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-6,650
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $7,535
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63074

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,045/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $94	+0% $71	+5% $48	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $19	+0% $71	+5% $123	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $91	base $71	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9627 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	0.21mi
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9733 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	3d	1	0.21mi
3434 Sims Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.5	988	$1,545	$1.56	44d	1	0.30mi
10124 Saint Martha Ln Saint Ann, MO	1.0	1.0	1400	$890	$0.64	15d	1	0.40mi
9807 Guthrie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,700	$1.59	24d	1	0.41mi
3648 Edmundson Rd Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	44d	1	0.45mi
10116 Saint Katherine Ln Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,865	$1.90	17d	1	0.48mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	0.49mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Unit NA St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	20d	1	0.49mi
10069 Livingston Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	24d	1	0.50mi
10214 Saint Anthony Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	734	$1,200	$1.63	44d	1	0.53mi
9457 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,530	$1.04	22d	1	0.54mi
9448 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	44d	1	0.54mi
3961 Jane Ave Unit 3963 St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	15d	1	0.56mi
3219 Royalton Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,095	$1.38	22d	1	0.58mi
3209 Royalton Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	805	$1,150	$1.43	44d	1	0.61mi
3213 Airway Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	0.63mi
9310 Shirley Gardens Dr Apt C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.73mi
9310 Shirley Gardens Dr Apt B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.73mi
3209 Dix Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,550	$1.38	24d	1	0.78mi
9618 De Porres Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	0.79mi
10205 Saint Daniel Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,450	$1.83	44d	1	0.81mi
4120 Geraldine Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	18d	1	0.84mi
9535 Baltimore Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,145	$1.43	24d	1	0.92mi
10145 Cabana Club Dr St Ann, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,060	$1.37	44d	8	0.93mi
9183 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.95mi
4400 Gordon Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	1.00mi
2732 Annapolis Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	44d	1	1.02mi
9429 Baltimore Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	1.03mi
3010 Woodson Rd Breckenridge Hills, MO	1.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	44d	1	1.05mi
10742 Tropic Dr Unit VACANT St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	1.16mi
4616 Country Ln St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	758	$1,505	$1.99	2d	9	1.19mi
10788 Tropic Dr Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	828	$1,260	$1.52	44d	1	1.24mi
9969 Sloane Sq Unit 9969C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	761	$895	$1.18	5d	1	1.29mi
11276 Liana Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,189	$1.52	4d	1	1.33mi
8819 McNulty Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	752	$1,225	$1.63	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $80,000 Active
2. 2020-11-17
   soldstatus $40,750
3. 2003-06-16
   soldstatus
4. 2003-06-16
   soldstatus
5. 1994-07-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,045
• − Insurance: −$5,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable loss: −$135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ritenour
• NCES district ID: 2926640
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,410
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9125
• State rank: #304 of 324 in MO

Livability — Breckenridge Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #10013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breckenridge Hills, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,793
• Household income: $51,610
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.89%
• Current HPI: 210.6588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.14%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+96.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com
• 2020-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $40,750 Public Records
• 2003-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,045 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.