38 Lynnwood Cir · Clarksville, TN 37040

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 213 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spring is just around the corner, let's Spring you into your new home! This is a great 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with plenty of space for everyone! The primary bath has a large garden tub to relax in! All kitchen appliances as well as washer and dryer are included with this home. The laundry room has its own space and centrally located in the home. This home also has off street parking. Move in now for the best start to Spring! Come in or schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 213 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 38 Lynnwood Cir, Clarksville, TN 37040; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $39,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section plan (3 bed, 2 bath); Spec new construction
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,248 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.5% vs local median 3.5% in Clarksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in TN, #798 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #65 of 139 in TN (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 604 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,583 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (617 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.03%
• DSCR: 5.32
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $48,613
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $106,667
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37040

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
278 Kettering Ct Unit 189 Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,369	$0.94	14d	1	0.08mi
955 Professional Park Dr Unit 102 Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	21d	1	0.11mi
64 Lynnwood Cir Unit 28 Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,519	$1.04	21d	1	0.12mi
179 Lynnwood Cir Unit 103 Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,369	$0.94	21d	1	0.15mi
172 Alexander Blvd Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,350	$1.11	21d	1	0.20mi
311 Sam Houston Cir Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,200	$0.99	21d	1	0.24mi
118 Alexander Blvd Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1252	$2,275	$1.82	21d	1	0.24mi
106 Alexander Blvd Unit 1 Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1215	$1,150	$0.95	21d	1	0.26mi
332 Sam Houston Cir Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,350	$1.11	21d	1	0.27mi
337 Sam Houston Cir Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,350	$1.11	21d	1	0.28mi
341 Sam Houston Cir Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,265	$1.04	21d	1	0.29mi
43 Ellington Ter Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,295	$1.06	21d	1	0.30mi
841 Professional Park Dr Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.5	1330	$1,595	$1.20	21d	1	0.31mi
645 Stowe Ct Unit L Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,395	$1.15	14d	1	0.31mi
850 Professional Park Dr Unit A201 Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,485	$1.26	14d	1	0.37mi
820 Professional Park Dr Apt 3-A Clarksville, TN	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,140	$1.04	21d	1	0.38mi
638 Stowe Ct Unit CC Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.5	1225	$1,375	$1.12	14d	1	0.38mi
950 Big Sky Dr Clarksville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	871	$1,310	$1.50	14d	21	0.51mi
851 Ted A Crozier Sr Blvd Clarksville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,625	$1.73	14d	18	0.51mi
537 Bellamy Ln Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	0.68mi
475 Bellamy Ln Unit 3001 Clarksville, TN	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,000	$1.74	21d	1	1.04mi
445 Warfield Blvd Clarksville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	1.22mi
2157 Watertown Pl Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,550	$1.22	14d	1	1.36mi
2157 Watertown Pl Clarksville, TN	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,550	$1.22	21d	1	1.36mi
2315 Raleigh Ct Clarksville, TN	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,022	$0.97	21d	1	1.40mi
284 Raleigh Dr Clarksville, TN	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,850	$1.71	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 194 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,604
• After-tax cash flow: $8,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 4703030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,423
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7641
• State rank: #65 of 139 in TN

Livability — Clarksville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #798

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clarksville, TN
• County: Montgomery County · 211,371 people
• City population: 211,371
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 64,977
• Household income: $67,745
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2670.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 236,633 people
• By 2030: 258,978 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 305,456 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 353,147 · +49.2%
• By 2075: 471,289 · +99.2%
• By 2100: 564,122 · +138.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 25% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.0% · R 58.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+12.7 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.79%
• Current HPI: 269.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.32%
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B