12584 Grandezza Cir · Estero, FL 33928

$625,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 10,000 sqft lot Est $705k · 11% under $915/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the sought-after Savona neighborhood within the Grandezza Golf & Country Club. Built in 2005, this spacious residence offers serene lake views and southern exposure, bathing the pool, spa, and expansive lanai in natural light all day long making it the ultimate setting for entertaining or simply unwinding in paradise. Inside, the open-concept layout features a beautifully appointed kitchen with granite countertops, a decorative tile backsplash, cabinets with crown molding, and a curved breakfast bar that flows seamlessly into the great room and breakfast nook, all overlooking the lanai. Tray ceilings highlighted b

Key facts

• Southern exposure
• Lake views
• Spa

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SOUTHERN EXPOSURE
• POOL
• SPA
• EXPANSIVE LANAI
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees noted; Total monthly fees noted
• HOA & community: Homeowner association required; Monthly HOA approximately $441.67; Quarterly association fee listed; Annual association fee listed; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, golf, basketball court, cable TV, internet; Pets allowed; Managed by Vesta Property Services and Grandezza Golf & Country Club

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Electricity connected; Cable connected; BB/HS internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Sliding doors; Landscaped lot; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $569k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $597k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $569k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,974/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $440k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $569,013 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $705,075
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12640 Grandezza Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,979 (+0%)	18mo	$770,000	$389	76
12777 Springbrook Ct	0.62mi	3/3.0	2,183 (+10%)	4mo	$779,900	$357	46
12592 Wildcat Cove Cir	0.56mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (+9%)	14mo	$724,900	$336	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-138,438
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-212,039
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$583 /mo · $6,996/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$915
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,254
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,375

Max offer price $569,013

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12595 Grandezza Cir Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$10,500	$6.37	23d	1	0.03mi
20091 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$10,950	$4.41	23d	1	0.18mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	23d	1	0.19mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$8,500	$3.90	15d	1	0.51mi
19649 Aqua View Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2178	$6,000	$2.75	23d	1	0.51mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	3d	1	0.56mi
20187 Ainsley St Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2135	$3,500	$1.64	15d	1	0.58mi
20651 Wildcat Run Dr #101 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$3,495	$2.15	23d	1	0.63mi
20101 Seagrove St #708 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$5,995	$4.19	23d	1	0.76mi
20151 Seagrove St #206 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,000	$3.46	23d	1	0.78mi
20051 Seagrove St #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$5,995	$3.83	23d	1	0.78mi
20161 Seagrove St #108 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1655	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	0.79mi
20161 Seagrove St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1702	$6,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.79mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	15d	1	0.82mi
19200 Aqua Shore Dr Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2062	$9,000	$4.36	23d	1	0.89mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	23d	1	0.93mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	23d	1	0.94mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	23d	1	0.98mi
20623 Fair Oak Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$3,800	$1.78	23d	1	1.04mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	23d	1	1.05mi
20083 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1981	$10,500	$5.30	23d	1	1.08mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	23d	1	1.08mi
20310 Calice Ct #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$5,500	$3.51	23d	1	1.12mi
13525 Villa Di Preserve Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2271	$3,500	$1.54	23d	1	1.12mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	23d	1	1.19mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	23d	1	1.20mi
21300 Lancaster Run #926 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,200	$1.62	10d	1	1.20mi
13561 Villa Di Preserve Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.21mi
21330 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,300	$1.88	23d	2	1.24mi
21330 Lancaster Run #1218 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,500	$2.04	21d	1	1.24mi
20516 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,200	$1.40	23d	1	1.30mi
15278 Blue Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1891	$11,000	$5.82	23d	1	1.32mi
20561 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,700	$1.18	23d	1	1.34mi
20239 Cypress Shadows Blvd Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2004	$3,750	$1.87	3d	1	1.35mi
20007 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.36mi
20013 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,700	$1.18	23d	1	1.37mi
20316 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2282	$3,600	$1.58	23d	1	1.39mi
20085 Larino Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2282	$2,650	$1.16	23d	1	1.41mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,720	$2.78	1d	18	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $915 · $10,980/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $625,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $625,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,996 · $583/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,996 · $583/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$6,996
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,735
• − Management: −$5,735
• − HOA: −$10,980
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-79.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $625,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $645,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $688,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $688,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $724,000 BEARMLS
• 2015-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $352,500 Public Records
• 2006-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $665,000 Public Records
• 1999-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $3,040,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,996 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.