1507 Creekwood Ln · Mesquite, TX 75149

$166,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1979 7,492 sqft lot Est $241k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice lot with mature trees for shade and good landscaping. Three bedroom home features a fireplace, open floorplan, split bedrooms with walkin closets. Back yard has a large covered patio to enjoy the upcoming spring and summer!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Interior lot
• Easy access to i-30

Tags

• INTERIOR LOT
• ALLEY ACCESS
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN MESQUITE
• EASY ACCESS TO I-635
• EASY ACCESS TO I-30
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 80

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Black El (math 33% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 627 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 63% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 345 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,262 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,316
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1518 Creekwood Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,455 (+4%)	7mo	$249,900	$172	81
206 Long Shadow Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+4%)	8mo	$279,400	$192	78
1012 Rancho Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+1%)	1mo	$259,900	$183	68
426 Running Brook Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	5mo	$219,900	$141	65
1215 Mulberry Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,403 (0%)	7mo	$269,000	$192	62
1442 Eastern Heights Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,385 (-1%)	2mo	$264,990	$191	61
12820 Hilltop Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,446 (+3%)	3mo	$175,000	$121	60
1725 Lemonwood Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$155	59
1218 Tulip Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (+7%)	6mo	$224,999	$149	54
1132 Ashland Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-9%)	2mo	$196,000	$154	50
1108 Ashland Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-11%)	4mo	$204,900	$164	50
1038 Lakeview Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+15%)	1mo	$299,900	$186	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,137
• Equity at exit: $24,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,483
• Equity at exit: $14,374

Cash invested: $46,550 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$872
• Tax from tax record: −$463 /mo · $5,561/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,778

Max offer price $166,250

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $270	+0% $223	+5% $176	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $142	+0% $223	+5% $305	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $266	base $223	+0.5pp $180	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,562
• Closing costs: $4,988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 Colborne Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,045	$1.13	45d	1	0.11mi
1400 Long Shadow Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	9d	1	0.12mi
1801 Wilkinson Rd Mesquite, TX	2.0	1.0	1396	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	0.20mi
1128 Catalan Trl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.36mi
1101 La Esperanza Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	0.44mi
1104 Ashland Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	9d	1	0.51mi
12931 Parker Ct Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,155	$1.61	9d	1	0.55mi
2033 Spring Mills Rd Unit 1056398P Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1872	$7,925	$4.23	0d	1	0.69mi
2113 Spring Mills Rd Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	1643	$3,500	$2.13	9d	1	0.72mi
902 Lindo Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	982	$1,695	$1.73	9d	1	0.73mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	45d	1	0.77mi
2008 Valley Falls Ave Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,350	$1.40	3d	1	0.78mi
1336 E Park Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,695	$1.64	4d	1	0.78mi
1115 Casa Dr Mesquite, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,850	$1.52	25d	1	0.81mi
12719 Bluffview Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,300	$1.29	45d	1	0.84mi
1002 Majors Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	45d	1	0.84mi
1311 Caladium Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	14d	1	0.84mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	25d	1	1.09mi
1601 Hillwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,095	$1.63	9d	1	1.12mi
334 Freeman St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,180	$1.64	9d	1	1.17mi
711 Darnel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1370	$1,939	$1.42	9d	1	1.17mi
1005 Chelsea Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,200	$1.18	25d	1	1.18mi
1029 Kory Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.18mi
1601 Chapman Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,845	$1.41	14d	1	1.18mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	23d	1	1.33mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	1.35mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	14d	1	1.35mi
612 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,746	$1.22	45d	1	1.36mi
608 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,900	$1.49	45d	1	1.37mi
2045 Avis Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	25d	1	1.37mi
450 Appomattox Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$1,930	$1.23	45d	1	1.38mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	4d	1	1.43mi
1424 Savannah St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,959	$1.34	18d	1	1.45mi
312 E Kimbrough St Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	1.47mi
2005 Mount Pleasant Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	939	$1,545	$1.65	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-28
   price $166,250
3. 2025-10-29
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2025-04-01
   soldstatus
5. 2013-03-26
   soldstatus Closed 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Nice lot with mature trees for shade and good landscaping. Three bedroom home features a fireplace, open floorplan, split bedrooms with walkin closets. Back yard has a large covered patio to enjoy the upcoming spring and summer!

6. 2013-01-18
   status Pending 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Nice lot with mature trees for shade and good landscaping. Three bedroom home features a fireplace, open floorplan, split bedrooms with walkin closets. Back yard has a large covered patio to enjoy the upcoming spring and summer!

7. 2013-01-14
   historical Active Contingent 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Nice lot with mature trees for shade and good landscaping. Three bedroom home features a fireplace, open floorplan, split bedrooms with walkin closets. Back yard has a large covered patio to enjoy the upcoming spring and summer!

8. 2013-01-02
   listed $60,000 Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Nice lot with mature trees for shade and good landscaping. Three bedroom home features a fireplace, open floorplan, split bedrooms with walkin closets. Back yard has a large covered patio to enjoy the upcoming spring and summer!

9. 2008-07-23
   soldstatus
10. 2008-07-21
    soldstatus 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Pride of ownership starts right here! Inside and out, this property has been so well maintained and it shows! Beautiful landscaping both front and back with mature trees. The back yard is a peaceful paradise. This cute three bedroom features an awesome fireplace, open floorplan with split bedrooms, walk in closets in every room, ceiling fans, custom cabnetry, and updated appliances. Great neighborhood and excellent location!!

11. 2008-05-20
    historical 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Pride of ownership starts right here! Inside and out, this property has been so well maintained and it shows! Beautiful landscaping both front and back with mature trees. The back yard is a peaceful paradise. This cute three bedroom features an awesome fireplace, open floorplan with split bedrooms, walk in closets in every room, ceiling fans, custom cabnetry, and updated appliances. Great neighborhood and excellent location!!

12. 2008-04-24
    listed $94,900 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Pride of ownership starts right here! Inside and out, this property has been so well maintained and it shows! Beautiful landscaping both front and back with mature trees. The back yard is a peaceful paradise. This cute three bedroom features an awesome fireplace, open floorplan with split bedrooms, walk in closets in every room, ceiling fans, custom cabnetry, and updated appliances. Great neighborhood and excellent location!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,561 · $463/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,561 · $463/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,313
• − Property taxes: −$5,561
• − Insurance: −$831
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$4,836
• Taxable income: $229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $166,250 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2013-01-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-01-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2013-01-02 Listed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2008-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-05-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-04-24 Listed $94,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,561 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.