609 W South Orange Ave Unit 4U · Short Hills, NJ 07079-1063

$370,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Condo · 8 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition $1197/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Luxury living at an incredible price point. This modern 2BR/2.1BA condo at The Newstead is refined, renovated, and move-in ready. Brazilian mahogany floors throughout the open living and dining space. Kitchen renovated 2015 with Jerusalem tile backsplash, Absolute Black Brazilian granite counters, and stainless steel appliances. Granite carries through to both marble baths. Primary suite features soaking tub and stall shower. Winged bedroom layout for maximum privacy. Ample closets throughout. Thermal windows and sliders lead to private 21x8 balcony. Freshly painted with all new modern lighting fixtures. In-unit washer/dryer. Maintenance fee covers heat, hot water, cooking gas, water, valet

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Private balcony
• Stall shower

Tags

• BRAZILIAN MAHOGANY FLOORS
• JERUSALEM TILE BACKSPLASH
• SOAKING TUB
• STALL SHOWER
• WINGED BEDROOM LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BALCONY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community living
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes heat, common area and exterior maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash collection, and water); Community amenities: club house, elevator, exercise room, kitchen facilities, outdoor pool, sauna, storage

Exterior

• Parking: Two garage spaces; Two additional parking spaces; Assigned garage with garage door opener; garage under/on-site parking
• Utilities: Electric service; Natural gas service; Public sewer; Association water; Cable TV available; Garbage/trash collection included
• Home design: Hi-Rise building; One-floor unit; Located on 4th floor; Renovated in 2015
• Construction: Renovated construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Thermal windows/doors; Association outdoor pool; Brick exterior; Flat roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Separate dining area; Living/dining combo; Range/oven - gas; Microwave; Kitchen exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath and walk-in closet; Two bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Carpeting; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with stall shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Multi-zone heating; Electric and natural gas heating fuel; Multi-zone cooling
• Interior features: Elevator; Fire extinguisher; Smoke detector; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Stackable washer/dryer; Gas water heater; Carbon monoxide detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (23.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $285k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.7% in Short Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Orange-Maplewood School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #114 of 472 in NJ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Mountain Elementary School (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C-, #249 of 1,303 statewide, top 19%, 618 students, 3% FRL); South Orange Middle School (math 28% / reading 68%, grade C-, #120 of 431 statewide, top 28%, 770 students, 12% FRL); Columbia High School (math 24% / reading 68%, grade D-, #133 of 399 statewide, top 34%, 1,930 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,655 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,803
• Equity at exit: $166,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $81,575
• Equity at exit: $256,393

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07079-1063

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,550/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$1,197
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$841
• Net cashflow: $-590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,752

Max offer price $284,655

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-334	-5% $-462	+0% $-590	+5% $-718	+10% $-845
Rent	-10% $-906	-5% $-748	+0% $-590	+5% $-432	+10% $-273
Rate	-1.0pp $-403	-0.5pp $-496	base $-590	+0.5pp $-686	+1.0pp $-783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 W 3rd St South Orange Village, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	979	$4,506	$4.60	0d	14	0.89mi
10 N Ridgewood Rd Unit 212 South Orange Village, NJ	2.0	2.0	1169	$3,100	$2.65	26d	1	0.90mi
7 W Parker Ave Unit 207 Maplewood, NJ	2.0	2.0	1070	$3,795	$3.55	45d	1	0.91mi
7 W Parker Ave Unit 414 Maplewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	875	$3,395	$3.88	26d	1	0.91mi
7 W Parker Ave Maplewood, NJ	2.0	2.0	1356	$4,495	$3.31	26d	1	0.91mi
209 Valley St South Orange, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$4,095	$4.62	0d	7	0.97mi
320 Valley St Unit 209 South Orange Village, NJ	2.0	2.0	1108	$3,450	$3.11	22d	1	0.97mi
320 Valley St Unit 309 South Orange Village, NJ	2.0	2.0	1049	$3,645	$3.47	45d	1	0.97mi
88 Sloan St South Orange Village, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1165	$5,545	$4.76	0d	2	0.99mi
153 Valley St South Orange, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$4,534	$5.61	0d	15	1.01mi
116 Valley St #2 South Orange Village, NJ	3.0	2.0	1636	$4,650	$2.84	4d	1	1.05mi
52 Taylor Pl South Orange Village, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$5,695	$5.50	0d	4	1.13mi
9 Vose Ave South Orange, NJ	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,810	$3.16	9d	1	1.13mi
117 3rd St South Orange, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,275	$2.73	45d	1	1.16mi
43 Cottage St Unit 2B South Orange Village, NJ	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,650	$2.41	3d	1	1.33mi
22 Cottage St South Orange, NJ	2.0	1.0	825	$2,700	$3.27	3d	2	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,197 · $14,364/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $370,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$5,550
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,845
• − Management: −$3,845
• − HOA: −$14,364
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$12,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern 2BR/2.5BA condo is move-in ready with high-end finishes and a luxurious feel.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modernizes the space and can be a selling point

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modernizes the space and can be a selling point ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Orange-Maplewood School District
• NCES district ID: 3415330
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $115,876
• Composite: 47.3/100
• National rank: #2301
• State rank: #114 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Short Hills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #10157

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $370,000 GSMLS