8207 Damascus Cir Unit D1 · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40228

$147,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Condo · 129 Days on market

Built 1978 $254/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tired of paying rent in 2025? All that money for no return? This is your opportunity to own your own home and enjoy immediate growing equity in this quickly developing part of Louisville. Conveniently located right off the highway for easy access to the city. But in walking distance from shopping, dining and job opportunity. A great option for buyers looking to build wealth while securing a move in ready place to call their own. Stop renting and start investing in yourself. Schedule your showing today. Additional updates include: A brand new Krogers & restaurants outside the neighborhood. New water heater New blinds Updated light fixtures and ceiling fans Brand-new carpet upstairs

Key facts

• New counter tops
• New water heater
• New tile shower

Tags

• PRIVATE REAR PATIO
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• FULLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW TILE SHOWER
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bates Elementary (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #473 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 568 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $129,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,214
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,737
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40228

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$254
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $238	+0% $196	+5% $155	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $130	+0% $196	+5% $263	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $234	base $196	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7220 Harborton Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	0.95mi
7400 Snow Bend Ave Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,506	$1.40	3d	11	1.22mi
8006 Cedar Creek Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,800	$1.68	3d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $254 · $3,048/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   price $147,000
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 126.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 18,085
• Household income: $79,404
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.41%
• Current HPI: 238.4061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $147,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $159,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +77.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.