4511 Eads St NE · Washington, DC 20019

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1920 5,676 sqft lot Est $320k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch-style home nestled in the desirable Deanwood neighborhood. Built in 1944, this home features a classic vinyl siding exterior and an interior layout that maximizes space. With 1,206 finished square feet, the home offers a comfortable living area perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of interior access to a partial basement, providing additional storage or potential for customization. The property boasts a lot size of 0.05 acres, ideal for low-maintenance living. The driveway offers convenient parking, ensuring easy access to the home. Located in a community with rich history, this home has quick access to public trans

Key facts

• Convenient parking
• 5,676 sq ft lot
• Built 1920

Tags

• VINYL SIDING EXTERIOR
• INTERIOR ACCESS TO BASEMENT
• LOT SIZE OF 0.05 ACRES
• CONVENIENT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smothers Es (210 students, 0% FRL); Kelly Miller Ms (351 students, 0% FRL); H.D. Woodson Hs (543 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $200k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,522
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 47th Pl NE	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (+6%)	1mo	$125,000	$150	58
4702 Jay St NE	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	776 (-1%)	17mo	$314,000	$405	55
5104 Brooks St NE	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	825 (+5%)	17mo	$418,500	$507	50
4953 E Capitol St SE	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	690 (-12%)	17mo	$280,000	$406	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,616
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $66,339
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20019

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,865/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $483	+0% $426	+5% $370	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $341	+0% $426	+5% $512	+10% $598
Rate	-1.0pp $527	-0.5pp $477	base $426	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4255 Eads St NE Unit 3 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	610	$1,750	$2.87	24d	1	0.16mi
4601 Blaine St NE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	26d	1	0.23mi
229 43rd Rd NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	20d	1	0.23mi
225 43rd Rd NE Unit 203 Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	900	$2,200	$2.44	26d	1	0.24mi
4241 Foote St NE Unit 102 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	811	$2,200	$2.71	6d	1	0.26mi
4241 Foote St NE Apt 301 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	909	$2,925	$3.22	6d	1	0.26mi
4651 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave NE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	663	$1,749	$2.64	7d	3	0.29mi
556 49th Pl NE Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	894	$3,475	$3.89	26d	1	0.29mi
4930 Eads Pl NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1054	$2,400	$2.28	26d	1	0.30mi
4615 Central Ave NE Unit B Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	26d	1	0.34mi
599 50th St NE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,081	$2.69	26d	1	0.42mi
4805 Texas Ave SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,400	$1.81	26d	1	0.44mi
4110 Ames St NE #14 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1098	$1,850	$1.68	26d	1	0.46mi
4427 A St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	920	$1,900	$2.07	26d	1	0.47mi
832 49th St NE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,425	$2.20	26d	1	0.49mi
832 49th St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,425	$2.20	18d	1	0.49mi
832 49th St NE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	9d	1	0.49mi
907 47th Pl NE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	950	$1,575	$1.66	17d	1	0.49mi
4511 B St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$1,650	$2.44	26d	2	0.50mi
44 49th St SE Unit A1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	793	$2,499	$3.15	26d	1	0.50mi
4013 Gault Pl NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$2,108	$2.63	26d	1	0.52mi
4473 B St SE #304 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	775	$1,999	$2.58	24d	1	0.54mi
4040 E Capitol St NE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$1,608	$2.24	9d	1	0.54mi
4930 A St SE Unit 203 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	750	$2,815	$3.75	26d	1	0.56mi
405 Division Ave NE Unit 201 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	656	$1,197	$1.82	19d	1	0.57mi
4932 A St SE #302 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,495	$2.48	6d	1	0.58mi
4919 A St SE Unit 202 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	625	$1,900	$3.04	26d	1	0.58mi
5000 Hunt St NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	629	$1,325	$2.11	26d	20	0.58mi
4934 Just St NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	966	$2,200	$2.28	26d	1	0.59mi
4925 Just St NE Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	864	$2,299	$2.66	26d	1	0.62mi
5225 Dix St NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	0.62mi
800 Kenilworth Ave NE Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$2,449	$2.67	4d	1	0.64mi
4820 C St SE #304 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	635	$1,600	$2.52	26d	1	0.66mi
750 Kenilworth Ter NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,650	$3.31	0d	8	0.72mi
700 Kenilworth Ter NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$3,130	$3.92	0d	49	0.72mi
324 Saint Louis St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	640	$1,750	$2.73	9d	1	0.73mi
4629 Meade St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	960	$2,300	$2.40	26d	1	0.76mi
5124 Astor Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	26d	1	0.78mi
3743 Jay St NE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,575	$2.30	26d	1	0.81mi
212 36th St NE #1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	750	$2,550	$3.40	26d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-07
   price $199,900
5. 2025-12-17
   status Active
6. 2025-11-13
   status Pending
7. 2025-09-10
   listed $209,900 Active
8. 2025-02-28
   historical
9. 2025-01-08
   listed $289,000 Active
10. 1988-12-07
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,865
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$476
• After-tax cash flow: $4,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 63,380
• Household income: $58,296
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5115.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.91%
• Current HPI: 326.4481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,865 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.