1415 Lexington Ave · Dayton, OH 45402

$54,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1928 5,401 sqft lot $38/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Expect the unexpected! This 1920’s built Dayton original retains original woodwork, oversized rooms and 3 levels of finished living area making it THE PLACE WITH SPACE! From the moment you pull up its fresh, clean exterior is a true standout. Low maintenance vinyl siding, a large covered front porch, new dimensional roofing, a 2 car detached garage and premium corner lot add to the appeal. Inside you’ll enjoy a traditional layout consisting of a large living room w/ decorative fireplace, formal dining room & kitchen authentic “swing door, ” double ovens, cozy breakfast nook and access to the fenced back yard. Space continues on the 2nd level with 3 generous be

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.43%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,130
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -51.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1029 Shakespeare Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (0%)	4mo	$71,000	$49	88
1419 Lexington Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (+4%)	8mo	$27,280	$18	81
3100 Princeton Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,448 (+1%)	6mo	$65,000	$45	73
1135 Windsor Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,484 (+3%)	4mo	$45,000	$30	70
1119 Windsor Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	7mo	$58,000	$42	66
1124 Seneca Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	6mo	$78,000	$60	64
1312 Canfield Ave	0.25mi	4/1.5	1,239 (-14%)	4mo	$44,220	$36	60
1526 Academy Pl	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,314 (-8%)	8mo	$154,900	$118	46
2515 Hoover Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,608 (+12%)	1mo	$120,000	$75	46
1725 W Grand Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,629 (+13%)	2mo	$144,900	$89	45
1616 Wesleyan Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,306 (-9%)	8mo	$159,000	$122	41
1656 Tennyson Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,290 (-10%)	8mo	$160,000	$124	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $39,333
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $100,327
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45402

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $443

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $751	+0% $736	+5% $720	+10% $705
Rent	-10% $627	-5% $681	+0% $736	+5% $790	+10% $844
Rate	-1.0pp $763	-0.5pp $750	base $736	+0.5pp $722	+1.0pp $707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1045 Shakespeare Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,275	$0.89	45d	1	0.06mi
660 Gramont Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,050	$0.92	5d	1	0.27mi
635 Anna St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	16d	1	0.30mi
3220 Princeton Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.41mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Apt B Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	0.49mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Unit C Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	4d	1	0.49mi
1816 N James H McGee Blvd Apt A Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	4d	1	0.49mi
437 Lorenz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1322	$1,200	$0.91	25d	1	0.58mi
617 Westwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.59mi
3207 Cornell Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,000	$0.86	5d	1	0.61mi
863 N Upland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.76mi
424 Lexington Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,025	$0.67	45d	1	0.78mi
1119 Superior Ave Unit 1119 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,350	$0.94	5d	1	0.78mi
216 N Ardmore Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	5d	1	0.83mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	13d	1	0.93mi
1743 Radcliffe Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1729	$1,200	$0.69	45d	1	0.95mi
1927 Burroughs Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,245	$0.88	16d	1	0.97mi
1225 Amherst Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1548	$1,300	$0.84	16d	1	0.98mi
1011 N Broadway St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1700	$950	$0.56	45d	1	1.05mi
70 Gramont Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	966	$1,300	$1.35	4d	1	1.06mi
2232 Salem Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	5d	1	1.10mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2247 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,350	$1.04	5d	1	1.13mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2249 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	45d	1	1.13mi
942 Harvard Blvd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,200	$0.75	5d	1	1.19mi
2141 Philadelphia Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1736	$1,395	$0.80	45d	1	1.20mi
40 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	16d	1	1.21mi
42 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,220	$0.94	5d	1	1.21mi
905 Neal Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.23mi
265 Victor Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1204	$900	$0.75	45d	1	1.25mi
234 Santa Clara Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,125	$0.82	45d	1	1.36mi
439 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	1.41mi
167 W Hudson Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,185	$0.88	45d	1	1.42mi
201 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,200	$0.84	45d	1	1.43mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	45d	1	1.44mi
181 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	45d	1	1.44mi
338 Kenwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1512	$1,195	$0.79	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $54,900 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $54,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 ActiveUnderContract 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    price $54,900 1215-char remark
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $59,900 Active 1215-char remark
15. 1997-11-04
    soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $8,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $6,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 9,407
• Household income: $48,401
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.89%
• Current HPI: 149.7909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $54,900 Dayton MLS
• 1997-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.