9881 Hyacinth Way · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$256,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2012 5,131 sqft lot $124/sqft · 6% below area Est $273k · 6% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover 9881 Hyacinth Way, a residence providing a functional layout designed for ease of use. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, an accent backsplash, and all stainless steel appliances, enhancing daily culinary tasks. The primary bathroom includes a separate tub and shower, providing practical utility. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced backyard, providing a defined and enclosed outdoor area. This property combines practical interior features with usable exterior space. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Functional island
• Covered patio
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE TUB AND SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Houser El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 636 students, 70% FRL); Irons J H (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 1,344 students, 52% FRL); Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,740 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,168
• List price: $256,000
• Delta: -6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10198 N Whimbrel Cir N	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,038 (-1%)	4mo	$295,000	$145	78
16916 Tableland Trl	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,055 (-0%)	5mo	$239,000	$116	76
16734 Warbler Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,096 (+2%)	4mo	$255,000	$122	74
9921 Kingfisher Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,096 (+2%)	4mo	$248,000	$118	73
9838 Bobolink Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$119	70
16790 N Rail Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,791 (-13%)	0mo	$265,000	$148	68
16758 N Blue Jay Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,814 (-12%)	2mo	$240,000	$132	65
10190 N Whimbrel Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+9%)	1mo	$317,000	$141	64
10311 Woodhollow Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,180 (+6%)	3mo	$324,900	$149	62
10158 N Whimbrel Cir	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,284 (+11%)	1mo	$316,000	$138	58
16373 Olive Sparrow Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	5mo	$270,000	$152	41
14 Bay Chapel Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,330 (+13%)	2mo	$349,900	$150	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-59,331
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-68,666
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,164/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $200,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-240	+0% $-313	+5% $-385	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-397	+0% $-313	+5% $-229	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-248	base $-313	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,040	$0.95	0d	1	0.15mi
9819 Kiwi Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,826	$1.27	8d	1	0.37mi
2662 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,910	$0.93	0d	1	0.95mi
2657 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1920	$1,860	$0.97	0d	1	1.01mi
9295 Inland Leather Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,400	$0.96	4d	1	1.39mi
17153 Upland Bent Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$2,149	$0.78	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $256,000 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Discover 9881 Hyacinth Way, a residence providing a functional layout designed for ease of use. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, an accent backsplash, and all stainless steel appliances, enhancing daily culinary tasks. The primary bathroom includes a separate tub and shower, providing practical utility. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced backyard, providing a defined and enclosed outdoor area. This property combines practical interior features with usable exterior space. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

2. 2026-04-07
   listed $260,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Discover 9881 Hyacinth Way, a residence providing a functional layout designed for ease of use. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, an accent backsplash, and all stainless steel appliances, enhancing daily culinary tasks. The primary bathroom includes a separate tub and shower, providing practical utility. A covered patio extends to a fully fenced backyard, providing a defined and enclosed outdoor area. This property combines practical interior features with usable exterior space. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

3. 2026-03-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,164 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,164 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$6,164
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$8,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $256,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,164 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.