36 Ember Ln · Willingboro, NJ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $526 – $976
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 61.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +14.6/30.0
- ARV discount +10.7/15.0
- 1% rule +4.7/10.0
- DSCR +4.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$349,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to one of the nicest 4 bedroom 2 full bath homes for sale in the very desirable Garfield East neighborhood. The moment you arrive you can see the professionally landscape yard and grounds. This well maintained ranch style home features a newer heater and central A/C system, new roof, modern eat in kitchen and a huge family room leading out from a newer sliding glass door to a beautiful huge deck with private professionally landscaped yard. The Solar Panels are owned and the Sellers monthly electric bills are minimal! Seller to provide Buyer with full details. All Offers must be on standard MLS Proposal to Purchas form with Mtge. Pre-Approval attached in one email No Buyer signed Con
Key facts
- Newer heater
- Huge family room
- New roof
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Ownership: Fee simple; Year built source: assessor; Above-grade finished area recorded as 1,770 (assessor)
Exterior
- Parking: Attached 1-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway; On-street parking; Public parking access
- Utilities: Public sewer; Public water (with filter); Natural gas for heating, cooling fuel, and hot water
- Home design: Detached home; Above-grade finished living space as recorded by assessor
- Construction: Frame construction with aluminum siding; Slab foundation; Above- and below-grade structures
- Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 100; No tidal water
Interior
- Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas); Circuit breakers electrical
- Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (3.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $339k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Willingboro Public School District (suburban): math 5% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #433 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $104k; list at $350k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.97% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.59%
- Cash-on-cash
- 1.05%
- DSCR
- 1.05
- GRM
- 8.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $377,010
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 Edge Ln | 0.28mi | 4/2.0 | 1,770 (0%) | 1mo | $305,000 | $172 | 86 |
| 26 Elderberry Ln | 0.21mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,730 (-2%) | 1mo | $335,000 | $194 | 81 |
| 111 Edge Ln | 0.22mi | 4/2.0 | 1,573 (-11%) | 1mo | $335,000 | $213 | 70 |
| 208 2nd St | 0.58mi | 4/2.0 | 1,795 (+1%) | 1mo | $560,000 | $312 | 70 |
| 43 Elsin Ln | 0.61mi | 4/2.0 | 1,770 (0%) | 3mo | $415,000 | $234 | 69 |
| 21 Glover Ln | 0.56mi | 4/2.0 | 1,791 (+1%) | 5mo | $360,000 | $201 | 68 |
| 11 Valley Farm Rd | 0.51mi | 4/3.0 | 1,800 (+2%) | 4mo | $575,000 | $319 | 66 |
| 7 Meadowbrook Dr | 0.44mi | 4/2.5 | 1,939 (+10%) | 3mo | $490,000 | $253 | 60 |
| 69 Edgely Ln | 0.34mi | 5/— (+1) | 1,959 (+11%) | 2mo | $305,000 | $156 | 59 |
| 86 E River Dr | 0.48mi | 4/2.0 | 1,573 (-11%) | 3mo | $265,000 | $168 | 57 |
| 11 Guild Ct | 0.54mi | 4/2.0 | 1,542 (-13%) | 5mo | $355,865 | $231 | 49 |
| 3 New Coach Ln | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,888 (+7%) | 4mo | $370,000 | $196 | 48 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -14.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.48×
- Total profit
- $-51,087
- Equity at exit
- $52,171
- IRR
- -5.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.62×
- Total profit
- $-36,827
- Equity at exit
- $30,253
Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 08046
- Active inventory
- 151
- Price-to-rent
- 8.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,385 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,835
- Tax from tax record
- −$608 /mo · $7,295/yr
- Insurance
- −$146
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$711
- Net cashflow
- $86
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $87,475
- Closing costs
- $10,497
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Elliot Ln Westampton, NJ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,900 | $1.93 | 1d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 16 Elridge Ln Willingboro, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1350 | $2,650 | $1.96 | 1d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 62 Sharpless Blvd Westampton, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1490 | $2,275 | $1.53 | 1d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 12 Holbrook Ln Willingboro, NJ | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2100 | $3,750 | $1.79 | 15d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 41 Messenger Ln Willingboro, NJ | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1497 | $3,500 | $2.34 | 5d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 89 Hampshire Ln Willingboro, NJ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1562 | $3,400 | $2.18 | 10d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 48 Marboro Ln Willingboro, NJ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1497 | $3,995 | $2.67 | 3d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 10 Melville Ln Willingboro, NJ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1797 | $3,000 | $1.67 | 15d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 13 events
-
2026-06-09days on market $349,900 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $349,900 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $349,900 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $349,900 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $349,900 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $349,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $349,900 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $349,900 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-04-18$399,900 Active
-
1990-09-12soldstatus $103,900
-
1986-07-25soldstatus $67,900
-
1985-07-01soldstatus $60,500
-
1980-04-01soldstatus $52,677
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $7,295 · $608/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $8,004 · $667/mo
- Expected delta
- +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 9.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $40,622
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,600
- − Property taxes
- −$7,295
- − Insurance
- −$1,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,250
- − Management
- −$3,250
- − Depreciation
- −$10,179
- Taxable loss
- −$4,701
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,128
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,156/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Willingboro Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 3418000
- Math proficiency
- 5% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 30% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $67,064
- Composite
- 17.37/100
- National rank
- #9074
- State rank
- #433 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Willingboro
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Burlington County · 323,710 people
- Metro
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Population (ZIP)
- 31,981
- Household income
- $98,178
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 342.0
Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 453,425 people
- By 2030
- 452,359 · -0.2%
- By 2040
- 445,033 · -1.9%
- By 2050
- 431,760 · -4.8%
- By 2075
- 406,277 · -10.4%
- By 2100
- 364,732 · -19.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (66%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% White 10%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Swiss 4% Romanian 2% Hispanic 1%
- Foreign-born
- 15% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Burlington
- 2024 margin
- D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -273.52%
- Current HPI
- 348.3441
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
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| Technology | 2 | $21B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
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| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
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Price history
+659.2% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-18 Listed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 1990-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $103,900 Public Records
- 1986-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records
- 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
- 1980-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,677 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.3%/yrLatest (2025): $7,295 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…