264 SW Central Ter · Fort White, FL 32038

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1992 0.92 ac lot Est $149k · 13% over $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a heavily wooded and private lot in the highly sought-after Three Rivers Estates community, this completely renovated 2BR/2BA doublewide on almost an acre offers the perfect blend of modern updates and North Florida outdoor living. Practically everything in the home is brand new, including a new roof, new flooring, fresh interior paint, new cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, updated fixtures, and more—making this property truly move-in ready. Surrounded by mature trees for added privacy and shade, the property also features a nice metal shed for additional storage, tools, or outdoor equipment. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residenc

Key facts

• Private lot
• Heavily wooded lot
• New flooring

Tags

• HEAVILY WOODED LOT
• PRIVATE LOT
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage about 1/2 to less than 1 (0.92 acres)
• HOA & community: Part of Three Rivers Estates; HOA required — $175 annually (about $14.58/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Fort White — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#463 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,545 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
383 SW Delaware Way	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	853 (-7%)	12mo	$138,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $101,077
• Equity at exit: $151,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $289,920
• Equity at exit: $326,387

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32038

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $199	+0% $152	+5% $104	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $94	+0% $152	+5% $209	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $194	base $152	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $168,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $168,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $168,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $168,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $168,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $168,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$901/yr (+$75/mo · 182.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$1,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$247
• After-tax cash flow: $2,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort White

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #8360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,035

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 57.72%
• Current HPI: 384.5816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $494 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.