2028 Glenarden Path · The Villages, FL 32163

$479,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,927 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2014 7,071 sqft lot Est $545k · 12% under $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

NO BOND • SOLAR PANELS (2025) • NO REAR NEIGHBORS • STRETCHED GARAGE & BEDROOM • NEW HVAC & WATER HEATER (10-YEAR TRANSFERABLE WARRANTY) Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath Aspen model in the highly sought-after Village of Hillsborough—where thoughtful upgrades, privacy, and style come together. From the moment you arrive, the home’s curb appeal shines with refreshed, manicured landscaping (recently updated after the 2026 freeze), a designer paver driveway with diamond inlay, and added front porch rain gutters. Step inside to an inviting open floor plan featuring tile flooring, high knock-down ceilings (no popcorn here!), a

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• New hvac
• Water heater

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• STRETCHED GARAGE
• NEW HVAC
• WATER HEATER
• MANICURED LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applicable; Unfurnished; No lease restrictions; Directions available
• Financial info: Other annual assessment applies; Total annual fees and monthly fee information available
• HOA & community: Community amenities: fitness center, golf, golf carts allowed, playground, pool, tennis courts, reclaimed water irrigation, deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed; Total monthly fees shown

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (22 x 23)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residence faces northeast; Residential zoning (R1)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: ASPEN; Built on 0.16 acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Landscaped with trees; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Split bedroom floorplan; Stone counters; Programmable thermostat; Tray ceiling; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-875 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,130 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $545,341
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3587 Alzarine Ter	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,969 (+2%)	2mo	$879,000	$446	90
1932 Quailey Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,923 (-0%)	4mo	$465,000	$242	89
3566 Cosmos Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+2%)	7mo	$555,000	$284	87
3334 Norcoose Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-0%)	3mo	$395,000	$206	82
3338 Queensway Ter	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,013 (+4%)	1mo	$470,000	$233	77
3567 Infinity Run	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+6%)	3mo	$485,500	$239	75
2092 Ironton Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	7mo	$415,000	$247	65
1586 Lemon Loop	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-1%)	4mo	$625,000	$327	64
3324 Queensway Ter	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,168 (+12%)	1mo	$467,000	$215	61
1965 Gatehouse Ter	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+6%)	4mo	$580,000	$285	57
3497 Oldham Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-12%)	6mo	$479,900	$283	50
1606 Tango St	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,107 (+9%)	5mo	$614,000	$291	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $205,659
• Equity at exit: $432,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $649,431
• Equity at exit: $932,340

Cash invested: $134,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,805/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,098

Max offer price $325,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-603	-5% $-739	+0% $-875	+5% $-1,010	+10% $-1,146
Rent	-10% $-1,111	-5% $-993	+0% $-875	+5% $-756	+10% $-638
Rate	-1.0pp $-633	-0.5pp $-753	base $-875	+0.5pp $-999	+1.0pp $-1,125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,975
• Closing costs: $14,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	22d	1	0.81mi
3064 Gulfport Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$2,800	$1.75	22d	1	1.00mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	22d	1	1.04mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,759	$1.76	22d	22	1.29mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	22d	1	1.47mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,399	$2.23	22d	44	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $479,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $479,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $479,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $479,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $479,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $499,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $499,900
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $509,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,805 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,983 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,882
• − Property taxes: −$3,805
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$13,961
• Taxable loss: −$19,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,642
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $509,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,805 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.