Morrow Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$312,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home delivers a private retreat in a first-floor owner's suite featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Steps away, an inviting open plan blends the kitchen, family room and dining area to create a convenient space for everyday living. Three additional bedrooms share the second floor with a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Kitchen

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN PLAN
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $312,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,690.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,517 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,690
• List price: $312,490
• Delta: -7.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3853 Amers Loop	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,910 (0%)	1mo	$291,890	$153	85
3893 Amers Loop	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+4%)	1mo	$318,544	$160	80
3873 Amers Loop	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+4%)	0mo	$317,083	$160	80
3529 Roden Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	0mo	$344,990	$189	79
3541 Roden Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	1mo	$345,990	$189	77
3553 Roden Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	1mo	$348,990	$191	76
3594 Roden Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-4%)	1mo	$342,000	$187	72
3917 Amers Loop	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,733 (-9%)	1mo	$304,877	$176	71
3829 Amers Loop	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,733 (-9%)	1mo	$298,873	$172	65
3542 Roden Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-12%)	1mo	$320,990	$192	59
5393 Willow Crk	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-13%)	0mo	$316,900	$190	48
5322 Willow Crk	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+14%)	0mo	$330,000	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-90,555
• Equity at exit: $50,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-136,172
• Equity at exit: $29,197

Cash invested: $94,553 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 94 active · 106 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,490 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,065/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $265,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-263	-5% $-380	+0% $-497	+5% $-613	+10% $-730
Rent	-10% $-680	-5% $-589	+0% $-497	+5% $-405	+10% $-313
Rate	-1.0pp $-327	-0.5pp $-411	base $-497	+0.5pp $-584	+1.0pp $-673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,422
• Closing costs: $10,131
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,300	$1.67	7d	1	0.05mi
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	0d	1	0.07mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	119d	1	0.26mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	119d	1	0.26mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	73d	1	0.27mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	0.28mi
3862 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	3.5	2400	$2,000	$0.83	0d	1	0.28mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	99d	1	0.31mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,150	$1.24	2d	1	0.31mi
4107 Longleaf St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2136	$2,000	$0.94	0d	1	0.32mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	9d	1	0.32mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	99d	1	0.34mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Unit A Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$1,990	$0.94	65d	1	0.56mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	119d	1	0.60mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	119d	1	0.65mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	119d	1	0.68mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,448	$1.16	0d	1	0.69mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	98d	1	0.69mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	65d	1	0.72mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	119d	1	0.73mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	119d	1	0.74mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	99d	1	0.74mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	119d	1	0.75mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.75mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	110d	1	0.75mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	119d	1	0.81mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.83mi
4317 Riverbend Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,100	$1.00	7d	1	0.87mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	119d	1	0.88mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.96mi
2401 White Tail St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,250	$0.96	6d	1	1.00mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,795	$1.06	6d	1	1.01mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,795	$1.06	9d	1	1.01mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	119d	1	1.01mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	99d	1	1.03mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	9d	1	1.03mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	73d	1	1.06mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	119d	1	1.15mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	73d	1	1.15mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City FL 33844Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $312,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Morrow)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1910

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: MorrowNew construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $312,490 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $312,490 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $312,490 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $312,490 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $312,490 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $312,490 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $312,490 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $312,490 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $312,490 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $312,490 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $312,490 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $312,490 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $312,490 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $312,490 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $312,490 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $312,490 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $312,490 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $312,490 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $312,490 Active 135 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $312,490 Active 134 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $312,490 Active 133 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $312,490 Active 132 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $312,490 Active 131 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $312,490 Active 130 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $312,490 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $312,490 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $312,490 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $312,490 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $312,490 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $312,490 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $312,490 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $312,490 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $312,490 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $312,490 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $312,490 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $312,490 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $312,490 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $312,490 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $312,490 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $312,490 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $312,490 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $312,490 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $312,490 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $312,490 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $312,490 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $312,490 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $312,490 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $312,490 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $312,490 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $312,490 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,916
• − Property taxes: −$5,065
• − Insurance: −$1,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$9,824
• Taxable loss: −$12,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready two-story home offers a private retreat with a first-floor owner's suite and an open-concept floor plan. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minor maintenance items to address. Updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Updated window treatments improve aesthetics and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Modern technology enhances convenience and adds value to the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City FL 33844Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $312,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Morrow)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1910

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: MorrowNew construction plan