12337 Shining Willow St · Riverview, FL 33579

$550,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,200 sqft lot 3-car garage $145/sqft · 9% below area Est $603k · 9% under $11/mo HOA ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Space, style, and serenity come together beautifully in this standout Cedarbrook residence in Riverview. Set within a community known for its peaceful, nature-filled surroundings, Cedarbrook offers scenic walking trails, nearby parks, and a relaxed, rural feel—yet remains just minutes from everyday conveniences and approximately 30 minutes to Downtown Tampa. This is the balance of tranquility and accessibility you are searching for.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private backyard
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• NEARBY PARKS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $550k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stowers Elementary School (math 81% / reading 82%, grade A+, #90 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 895 students, 14% FRL); Barrington Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,434 students, 34% FRL); Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 52% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $363,361 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.23%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $603,429
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -8.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13079 Willow Grove Dr	0.11mi	5/4.5	4,281 (+13%)	0mo	$580,000	$135	71
12546 Colonnade Vista Dr	0.54mi	5/4.5	3,629 (-4%)	21mo	$615,090	$169	48
12552 Colonnade Vista Dr	0.52mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,868 (+2%)	21mo	$648,160	$168	47
12795 Tripoli Ave	0.72mi	5/4.0	3,545 (-6%)	15mo	$620,400	$175	43
13251 Peachleaf Ave	0.46mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (-12%)	23mo	$469,900	$141	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-125,964
• Equity at exit: $121,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-189,254
• Equity at exit: $118,653

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $594,450 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,101 /mo · $13,208/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $-1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,348

Max offer price $363,361

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-745	-5% $-901	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-1,212	+10% $-1,368
Rent	-10% $-1,373	-5% $-1,215	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-898	+10% $-740
Rate	-1.0pp $-780	-0.5pp $-917	base $-1,057	+0.5pp $-1,199	+1.0pp $-1,344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13077 Willow Grove Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.5	3432	$4,800	$1.40	27d	1	0.12mi
12979 Willow Grove Dr Unit Na Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	3786	$4,200	$1.11	11d	1	0.37mi
12588 Timber Moss Ln Riverview, FL	6.0	3.0	3362	$3,100	$0.92	34d	1	0.43mi
13259 Palmerston Rd Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2633	$2,900	$1.10	73d	1	0.52mi
12787 Maple Bonsai Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,700	$1.02	29d	1	0.73mi
12811 Twin Bridges Dr Unit Labs Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2937	$3,250	$1.11	67d	1	0.87mi
12668 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2937	$3,600	$1.23	42d	1	0.99mi
12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2896	$2,600	$0.90	73d	1	1.11mi
12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2896	$2,600	$0.90	48d	1	1.11mi
11212 Hawks Fern Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	3567	$3,995	$1.12	63d	1	1.31mi
12114 Creek Edge Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	4.0	3278	$4,800	$1.46	66d	1	1.40mi
13605 Botany Bay Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2885	$2,585	$0.90	69d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD presentLease restrictions applyTurnkey furnished option noted (if applicable)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by Inframark ManagementHOA dues required: $137 annually ($11.42/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayGarage door openerAttached 3-car garage
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable connectedFiber opticsSprinkler meterSprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyPlanned development (PD) zoningTwo-story homeFaces eastEntry level: Two levels
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as of public records
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened patioSliding doorsHurricane shuttersSidewalkSprinkler meterSprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenConvection ovenCooktopDishwasherDisposalExhaust fanMicrowaveRange hoodRefrigeratorTrash compactorWater softenerEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral airAttic fan
• Interior features: Built-in featuresCeiling fansEat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsOpen floorplanPest guard systemSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsStone countersThermostatTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsENERGY STAR qualified windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomGas water heater

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $550,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $550,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   price $550,000 2061-char remark
4. 2026-05-08
   price $560,000 2061-char remark
5. 2026-05-01
   price $570,000 2061-char remark
6. 2026-04-24
   listed $580,000 Active 2061-char remark
7. 2026-03-26
   historical
8. 2026-03-19
   price $589,000
9. 2026-03-19
   price $589,900
10. 2026-02-21
    price $599,000
11. 2026-02-06
    listed $609,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,208 · $1,101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,208 · $1,101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$13,208
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,850
• − Management: −$3,850
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$22,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $18,930–$56,790 screening

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home in a serene neighborhood offers a balance of tranquility and accessibility. With modern appliances, good lighting, and a well-maintained exterior, it's ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patricia Sullivan Metropolitan Ministries Partnership School C FL #892/2,144 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Barrington Middle School A- FL #84/571 Nat'l #1,110/14,009 High Newsome High School B+ FL #55/667 Nat'l #2,083/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD presentLease restrictions applyTurnkey furnished option noted (if applicable)
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by Inframark ManagementHOA dues required: $137 annually ($11.42/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayGarage door openerAttached 3-car garage
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable connectedFiber opticsSprinkler meterSprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyPlanned development (PD) zoningTwo-story homeFaces eastEntry level: Two levels
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as of public records
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened patioSliding doorsHurricane shuttersSidewalkSprinkler meterSprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in ovenConvection ovenCooktopDishwasherDisposalExhaust fanMicrowaveRange hoodRefrigeratorTrash compactorWater softenerEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral airAttic fan
• Interior features: Built-in featuresCeiling fansEat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsOpen floorplanPest guard systemSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsStone countersThermostatTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsENERGY STAR qualified windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomGas water heater

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $560,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $570,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $580,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $589,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $589,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $609,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+50.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,208 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.