12337 Shining Willow St · Riverview, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 26 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +11.5/15.0
- Schools +6.4/10.0
- Cash flow +5.3/30.0
- Appreciation +4.3/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- 1% rule +1.9/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
$546,565
12337 Shining Willow St · Riverview, FL 33579
5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,786 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 11 Days on market
Built 2022
7,405 sqft lot
Garage
$144/sqft
· 9% below area
Est $600k · 9% under
$11/mo HOA
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Short Sale. This beautifully designed M/I Homes Sonoma II two-story home in the Cedarbrook community of Belmond Reserve in Riverview spans 3,786 square feet and features 5 bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms and a 3-car garage. A standout feature is the two primary suites, one on the first floor and one upstairs, ideal for multi-generational living or guests. The versatile floor plan offers room for everyday living, working from home and entertaining. Curb appeal starts with a brick-paver driveway and stone accents, and the 3-car garage provides space for vehicles, storage or a workshop.
Key facts
- Brick-paver driveway
- Community pool
- Cedarbrook community
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $547k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (39.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (30.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $333k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
- Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Stowers Elementary School (math 81% / reading 82%, grade A+, #90 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 895 students, 14% FRL); Barrington Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,434 students, 34% FRL); Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 52% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$333,394
(39.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.69% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.64%
- Cash-on-cash
- -9.46%
- DSCR
- 0.58
- GRM
- 12.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $600,092
- List price
- $546,565
- Delta
- -8.92%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13079 Willow Grove Dr | 0.11mi | 5/4.5 | 4,281 (+13%) | 3mo | $580,000 | $135 | 68 |
| 11325 Hidden Valley Ln | 1.01mi | 5/3.5 | 3,751 (-1%) | 0mo | $825,000 | $220 | 61 |
| 13176 Twin Bridges Dr | 0.85mi | 5/4.0 | 3,573 (-6%) | 3mo | $685,000 | $192 | 54 |
| 12834 Boggy Creek Dr | 0.77mi | 5/4.5 | 4,219 (+11%) | 2mo | $810,000 | $192 | 42 |
| 12795 Tripoli Ave | 0.72mi | 5/4.0 | 3,545 (-6%) | 18mo | $620,400 | $175 | 40 |
| 12818 Boggy Creek Dr | 0.75mi | 4/4.0 (-1) | 3,219 (-15%) | 3mo | $615,000 | $191 | 32 |
| 12912 Bent Twig Dr | 1.10mi | 4/3.0 (-1) | 3,265 (-14%) | 3mo | $745,000 | $228 | 30 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -22.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.12×
- Total profit
- $-134,821
- Equity at exit
- $120,973
10-year hold
- IRR
- -18.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.36×
- Total profit
- $-207,973
- Equity at exit
- $117,912
Cash invested: $153,038 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 22 active · 15 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $604,700 ($180/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 80 d
- This list price
- 36% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -12.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33579
- Home prices YoY
- -0.6%
- Rents YoY
- 1.2%
- Active inventory
- 651
- Price-to-rent
- 12.0×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $3,796 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,866
- Tax from tax record
- −$1,101 /mo · $13,208/yr
- Insurance
- −$228
- HOA
- −$11
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$797
- Net cashflow
- $-1,207
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$5,324
Max offer price
$333,394
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-897 | -5% $-1,052 | +0% $-1,207 | +5% $-1,361 | +10% $-1,516 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,507 | -5% $-1,357 | +0% $-1,207 | +5% $-1,057 | +10% $-907 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-931 | -0.5pp $-1,068 | base $-1,207 | +0.5pp $-1,348 | +1.0pp $-1,492 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $136,641
- Closing costs
- $16,397
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13077 Willow Grove Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3432 | $4,800 | $1.40 | 118d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 13055 Willow Grove Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3316 | $3,950 | $1.19 | 10d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 13345 Sage Hollow Ave Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2994 | $2,995 | $1.00 | 0d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 13345 Sage Hollow Ave Unit Na Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2994 | $2,995 | $1.00 | 7d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 12979 Willow Grove Dr Unit Na Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3786 | $4,200 | $1.11 | 103d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 13071 Brookside Moss Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3362 | $3,400 | $1.01 | 36d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 12588 Timber Moss Ln Riverview, FL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3362 | $2,900 | $0.86 | 10d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 12970 Brookside Moss Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3432 | $3,600 | $1.05 | 10d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 12970 Brookside Moss Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3432 | $3,800 | $1.11 | 75d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 13259 Palmerston Rd Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2633 | $2,900 | $1.10 | 165d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 12736 Bergstrom Bay Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3615 | $4,000 | $1.11 | 51d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 12860 Tripoli Ave Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2633 | $2,650 | $1.01 | 10d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 12787 Maple Bonsai Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2635 | $2,700 | $1.02 | 121d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 12811 Twin Bridges Dr Unit Labs Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2937 | $3,250 | $1.11 | 158d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 12668 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2937 | $3,600 | $1.23 | 134d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2896 | $2,600 | $0.90 | 140d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2896 | $2,600 | $0.90 | 165d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 12916 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2635 | $3,000 | $1.14 | 10d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 12813 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2635 | $2,950 | $1.12 | 10d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 11212 Hawks Fern Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3567 | $3,995 | $1.12 | 154d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 13118 Jeter Creek Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3601 | $4,100 | $1.14 | 10d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 12114 Creek Edge Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3278 | $4,800 | $1.46 | 158d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 13605 Botany Bay Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2885 | $2,585 | $0.90 | 161d | 1 | 1.41mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Cedarbrook Property Owners AssociationAnnual association fee of $130CDD fee of $3,519.88
Exterior
- Parking
- Garage with 3 spaces
- Utilities
- Public sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
- Home design
- Two storiesFirst-floor entrySingle-family residence
- Construction
- Shingle roof
Interior
- Kitchen
- Convection ovenDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 5 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetTileVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 4 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air
- Interior features
- Built-in featuresEat-in kitchenOpen floorplan
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $546,565 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-11-07days on market $546,565 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $546,565 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-11-05days on market $546,565 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-11-04days on market $546,565 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $546,565 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $546,565 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $546,565 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $546,565 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-10-28statusdays on market $546,565 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-10-24remarks 699-char remark
-
2026-10-24pricestatusdays on market $546,565 Coming Soon
-
2026-06-01days on market $550,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $550,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-05-16price $550,000 2061-char remark
-
2026-05-08price $560,000 2061-char remark
-
2026-05-01price $570,000 2061-char remark
-
2026-04-24$580,000 Active 2061-char remark
-
2026-03-26historical
-
2026-03-19price $589,000
-
2026-03-19price $589,900
-
2026-02-21price $599,000
-
2026-02-06$609,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $13,208 · $1,101/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $13,208 · $1,101/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $45,554
- − Mortgage interest
- −$30,616
- − Property taxes
- −$13,208
- − Insurance
- −$2,733
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,644
- − Management
- −$3,644
- − HOA
- −$132
- − Depreciation
- −$15,900
- Taxable loss
- −$24,324
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$5,838
- After-tax cash flow
- $-8,643/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $18,930–$56,790 screening
This well-maintained, move-in-ready home in a serene neighborhood offers a balance of tranquility and accessibility. With modern appliances, good lighting, and a well-maintained exterior, it's ready for a new owner.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
C
Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Patricia Sullivan Metropolitan Ministries Partnership School
C
FL #892/2,144
Nat'l #9,801/41,679
Middle
Barrington Middle School
A-
FL #84/571
Nat'l #1,110/14,009
High
Newsome High School
B+
FL #55/667
Nat'l #2,083/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hillsborough
- NCES district ID
- 1200870
- Math proficiency
- 47% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $50,622
- Composite
- 41.6/100
- National rank
- #3435
- State rank
- #41 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 79/100
Livability — Riverview
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #134
- US rank
- #2000
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute B
Cost of living B+
Crime B
Employment B+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings C
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Riverview, FL
- County
- Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
- City population
- 137,988
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 49,470
- Household income
- $116,134
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6% of renters
Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,607,022 people
- By 2030
- 1,733,968 · +7.9%
- By 2040
- 1,979,565 · +23.2%
- By 2050
- 2,203,427 · +37.1%
- By 2075
- 2,667,893 · +66.0%
- By 2100
- 2,891,558 · +79.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.42%
- Current HPI
- 240.5825
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.18%
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Property tax history
+50.7%/yrLatest (2025): $13,208 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…