1434 Ryan Rd · Almond, NY 14804

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2005 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED PRICE !! 4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Open Concept Manufactured Home in the Alfred Almond School District. Walking Distance to Bully Hill State Park, so would also have potential as a Recreational Property! Large eat in kitchen, with sliding glass doors to the back deck. The Laundry room is next to the kitchen, with the family room at the other end of the kitchen. The formal living room and windows allow for a great view of the Allegany hills. The Master Bedroom and Bath are at one end of the home, with 3 additional bedrooms and another full bath at the opposite end. The home is situated on . 90 Acre with open fields and hills as a view!

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Brand new kitchen
• Outdoor dining

Tags

• RENOVATED INTERIOR
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• REAR DECK
• OUTDOOR DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale home; Metal roof; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum-sided construction; Metal roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 250 (0.9 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#801 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alfred-Almond Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 279 students, 47% FRL); Alfred-Almond Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 272 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $163k implies a 561% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,962 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,807
• Equity at exit: $78,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $52,071
• Equity at exit: $125,749

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14804

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,628/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $123,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-174	+0% $-220	+5% $-267	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-271	+0% $-220	+5% $-170	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-179	base $-220	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $162,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $162,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $162,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $162,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 689-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $162,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$3,628
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$5,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alfred-Almond Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602700
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,682
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2772
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Almond

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #801
• US rank: #15500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,501

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 3% Two or more races 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.59%
• Current HPI: 261.9254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $162,900 CNYIS
• 2023-11-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-08-08 Listed $97,500 UNYREIS
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $24,649 UNYREIS
• 2018-04-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-04-12 Price Changed $37,908 UNYREIS
• 2018-03-09 Price Changed $42,120 UNYREIS
• 2018-02-02 Price Changed $46,800 UNYREIS
• 2017-12-27 Listed $52,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,628 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.