1550 20th St Spc 14 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $140k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1990
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.62%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1550 W 20th St Spc 67	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	10mo	$130,000	$90	90
1550 20th St W #70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+2%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	87
1550 W 20th St #18	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	5mo	$160,000	$100	79
1550 20th W	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	5mo	$175,000	$109	79
2013 Sonja Dr #73	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+2%)	12mo	$142,500	$96	76
1550 20th St W #97	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	12mo	$162,000	$101	74
2016 Windcurrent Dr #143	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	14mo	$151,500	$100	68
2109 Windflower Dr #106	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+3%)	14mo	$151,000	$101	68
2000 Windcurrent Dr #147	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	66
2021 Windharp #30	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+6%)	1mo	$108,000	$70	66
2104 Windbreak Drive #18 #18	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	61
2116 Windflow Drive #66 #66	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$98,950	$74	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $92,500
• Equity at exit: $45,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.08×
• Total profit: $217,834
• Equity at exit: $67,838

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,188/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $1,298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	1d	1	0.40mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	3d	1	0.44mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	43d	1	0.44mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	15d	1	0.85mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	10d	1	1.08mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	1d	1	1.08mi
2821 Desert St Unit C Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,795	$1.84	1d	1	1.21mi
2910 B St Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.5	1775	$1,542	$0.87	19d	1	1.34mi
3017 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,800	$1.54	43d	1	1.34mi
3124 Via Bella Rosa Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2023-06-09
   soldstatus $114,000 Closed Sale 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

2. 2023-04-29
   status Pending Sale 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

3. 2023-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

4. 2023-04-13
   listed $109,900 Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

5. 2023-04-13
   listed $109,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Enjoy living in this quiet Park, Tara Estates, located in Rosamond, near the freeway, so it's perfect for commuters. Inside you will find a very large living area * large kitchen * large front porch/patio nice sized bedrooms and nice-sized bathrooms. Great value for a very large home. Home is contingency of Finding a home and closing concurrently.

6. 2022-03-09
   historical 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   A great double wide that has been newly painted inside and out. New carpet and linoleum flooring through out the home. Living room is open to the dining area and kitchen. Through the kitchen is a mud room that has washer and dryer hookups. Master bedroom features walk-in closet and Bathroom features a vanity. Guest shower has been completely re-glazed with a new sink and toilet. Outside there is minimal upkeep and backs up to the desert. Buyer to verify all information. Seller financing available.

7. 2022-03-08
   soldstatus $95,000 Closed 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   A great double wide that has been newly painted inside and out. New carpet and linoleum flooring through out the home. Living room is open to the dining area and kitchen. Through the kitchen is a mud room that has washer and dryer hookups. Master bedroom features walk-in closet and Bathroom features a vanity. Guest shower has been completely re-glazed with a new sink and toilet. Outside there is minimal upkeep and backs up to the desert. Buyer to verify all information. Seller financing available.

8. 2021-12-22
   listed $92,950 Active 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   A great double wide that has been newly painted inside and out. New carpet and linoleum flooring through out the home. Living room is open to the dining area and kitchen. Through the kitchen is a mud room that has washer and dryer hookups. Master bedroom features walk-in closet and Bathroom features a vanity. Guest shower has been completely re-glazed with a new sink and toilet. Outside there is minimal upkeep and backs up to the desert. Buyer to verify all information. Seller financing available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,188
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,454
• − Management: −$2,454
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $14,672
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,521
• After-tax cash flow: $12,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2023-06-09 Sold (MLS) $114,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-04-29 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $109,900 AVMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $109,900 CRMLS
• 2022-03-09 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2022-03-08 Sold (MLS) $95,000 AVMLS
• 2021-12-22 Listed $92,950 AVMLS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,188 · +540.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.