302 2nd St · Carmi, IL 62821

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 181 Days on market

Built 1950 6,969 sqft lot $69/sqft · 5% below area Est $95k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this Beautifully updated 1,296 Sq. Ft. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home nestled in a quiet neighborhood, offering comfort and style. We enter the home to an open Living area with an a-joining dining area making entertaining a breeze. Kitchen features updated appliances with a spacious pantry. Updated Bathroom with walk-in shower. Enjoy cooking in a stylish outdoor kitchen perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the outdoor bar area. * 2024 HVAC This home just keeps giving when it comes to design, features, and opportunity.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Spacious pantry
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR BAR AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#801 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Carmi-White County CUSD 5 (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #264 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• White County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $90k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,215
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Paint Creek Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	4mo	$92,000	$71	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $29,121
• Equity at exit: $41,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $78,261
• Equity at exit: $65,815

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62821

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $90,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $95,000
18. 2026-04-08
    price $105,000
19. 2026-04-02
    status Active
20. 2026-04-01
    historical
21. 2026-01-06
    historical
22. 2025-12-12
    price
23. 2025-11-06
    price
24. 2025-09-30
    listed Active
25. 2021-05-06
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 95.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$437
• After-tax cash flow: $2,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmi-White County CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1708500
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,328
• Composite: 25.02/100
• National rank: #7555
• State rank: #264 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carmi

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #801
• US rank: #15885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmi, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,896

Population outlook (White County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,756 people
• By 2030: 13,316 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 12,487 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 11,731 · -14.7%
• By 2075: 9,948 · -27.7%
• By 2100: 7,494 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · White

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 19.7% · R 79.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.4pp toward R · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+36.0 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• Current HPI: 183.02
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $95,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $701 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.