85210 Dentons Way · Florence, OR 97439

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1990 2.03 ac lot Est $390k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Terms UPDATE-7-24-09 Corners are newly marked,GREAT PRICE REDUCTION FOR 1.95 ACRES CLOSE TO RECREATION, BEACH, LAKE, DUNES, TOWN. PARK LIKE SETTING. FURNITURE, WASHER, DRYER, REFRIGERATOR & RANGE, DISHES, TOWELS. RENT OUT AS FURNISHED RENTAL OR USE AS A VACATION RENTAL. ROOM FOR RV. FIREPLACE,SKYLIGHTS,SUNROOM NOT INCLUDED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE. 3 BED, 2 BATH.

Key facts

• Mostly level
• 2.03 acres
• Existing well

Tags

• 2.03 ACRES
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• SEASONAL STREAM
• MOSTLY LEVEL
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• EXISTING WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 2.03 acres; Zoned RR2/BD; Not part of a land lease; Appraiser-measured building area ~1,323

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV access/parking; Detached 2-car garage; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric water heater; Electric service (fuel: electricity); Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home on real property; Residential property; Fixer condition; Main living area on one level; Views of creek/stream and woods
• Construction: Built in 1990; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; RV parking; Waterfront with seasonal creek/stream and trees/woods view; Cul-de-sac lot; Level parcel; Private road; Trees/wooded setting; Dirt and gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Siuslaw Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 520 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw Middle School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 128 statewide, top 80%, 270 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 459 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $191,766 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,285
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85339 Glenada Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-2%)	8mo	$252,500	$195	58
4988 S Loftus Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-10%)	18mo	$350,000	$295	56
5273 Harvard St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	21mo	$407,500	$302	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $128,866
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $363,536
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $372	+0% $315	+5% $259	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $239	+0% $315	+5% $391	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $366	base $315	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $199,900 Active
18. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $145,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Owner Terms UPDATE-7-24-09 Corners are newly marked,GREAT PRICE REDUCTION FOR 1.95 ACRES CLOSE TO RECREATION, BEACH, LAKE, DUNES, TOWN. PARK LIKE SETTING. FURNITURE, WASHER, DRYER, REFRIGERATOR & RANGE, DISHES, TOWELS. RENT OUT AS FURNISHED RENTAL OR USE AS A VACATION RENTAL. ROOM FOR RV. FIREPLACE,SKYLIGHTS,SUNROOM NOT INCLUDED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE. 3 BED, 2 BATH.

19. 2009-09-21
    historical 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Owner Terms UPDATE-7-24-09 Corners are newly marked,GREAT PRICE REDUCTION FOR 1.95 ACRES CLOSE TO RECREATION, BEACH, LAKE, DUNES, TOWN. PARK LIKE SETTING. FURNITURE, WASHER, DRYER, REFRIGERATOR & RANGE, DISHES, TOWELS. RENT OUT AS FURNISHED RENTAL OR USE AS A VACATION RENTAL. ROOM FOR RV. FIREPLACE,SKYLIGHTS,SUNROOM NOT INCLUDED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE. 3 BED, 2 BATH.

20. 2008-08-29
    listed $179,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Owner Terms UPDATE-7-24-09 Corners are newly marked,GREAT PRICE REDUCTION FOR 1.95 ACRES CLOSE TO RECREATION, BEACH, LAKE, DUNES, TOWN. PARK LIKE SETTING. FURNITURE, WASHER, DRYER, REFRIGERATOR & RANGE, DISHES, TOWELS. RENT OUT AS FURNISHED RENTAL OR USE AS A VACATION RENTAL. ROOM FOR RV. FIREPLACE,SKYLIGHTS,SUNROOM NOT INCLUDED IN SQUARE FOOTAGE. 3 BED, 2 BATH.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$93/mo · 137.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$120
• After-tax cash flow: $3,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Florence

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #8094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $199,900 RMLS
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) $145,000 RMLS
• 2009-09-21 Delisted — RMLS
• 2008-08-29 Listed $179,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.