12963 Shady Grove Ln · Conroe, TX 77356

$329,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,185 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

Built 2026 5,750 sqft lot $151/sqft · 18% below area Est $404k · 18% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love where you live in Walden on Lake Conroe in Conroe, TX! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 4 bedrooms (1 down, 3 up), 3 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with vinyl plank flooring throughout and a large kitchen island overlooking the dining and family rooms. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs offers a private retreat for the Owner's Suite and secondary bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Walden on Lake Conroe home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Sienna floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• SIENNA FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,567 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,250
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -18.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3314 Lake Island Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (+6%)	3mo	$349,000	$151	68
3502 Tudor Cir	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,084 (-5%)	3mo	$252,900	$121	61
3343 Pebble Beach Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,037 (-7%)	2mo	$375,000	$184	58
3046 Lake Island Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,292 (+5%)	2mo	$529,000	$231	55
3814 Evergreen Way	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,273 (+4%)	3mo	$229,900	$101	52
3515 Country Club Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,010 (-8%)	3mo	$369,000	$184	52
13427 Sea Island Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,010 (-8%)	3mo	$350,000	$174	50
13439 Hilton Head Dr	0.73mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	4mo	$289,000	$143	43
12807 Oak Village Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,927 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$169	42
3578 Pebble Beach Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-12%)	0mo	$325,000	$168	41
3218 W Woodchuck Rd W	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,983 (-9%)	1mo	$239,900	$121	41
17440 Calmwater Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,381 (+9%)	3mo	$249,900	$105	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-94,062
• Equity at exit: $49,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-151,551
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $253,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-417	+0% $-531	+5% $-645	+10% $-759
Rent	-10% $-716	-5% $-624	+0% $-531	+5% $-439	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-365	-0.5pp $-447	base $-531	+0.5pp $-617	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,498
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3804 Mystic Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1888	$2,100	$1.11	44d	1	0.97mi
3813 Breckenridge Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2850	$2,499	$0.88	6d	1	1.02mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	19d	1	1.03mi
16020 Fountainview Dr Unit 17 Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,700	$1.06	13d	1	1.08mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	13d	1	1.15mi
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	15d	1	1.21mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	44d	1	1.25mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.29mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	1.33mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,990 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $329,990 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Love where you live in Walden on Lake Conroe in Conroe, TX! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 4 bedrooms (1 down, 3 up), 3 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with vinyl plank flooring throughout and a large kitchen island overlooking the dining and family rooms. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs offers a private retreat for the Owner's Suite and secondary bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Walden on Lake Conroe home, schedule a visit today!

16. 2025-11-13
    price $344,990 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Love where you live in Walden on Lake Conroe in Conroe, TX! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 4 bedrooms (1 down, 3 up), 3 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with vinyl plank flooring throughout and a large kitchen island overlooking the dining and family rooms. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs offers a private retreat for the Owner's Suite and secondary bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Walden on Lake Conroe home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2025-11-05
    listed $346,985 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    Love where you live in Walden on Lake Conroe in Conroe, TX! The Sienna floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 4 bedrooms (1 down, 3 up), 3 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with vinyl plank flooring throughout and a large kitchen island overlooking the dining and family rooms. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Upstairs offers a private retreat for the Owner's Suite and secondary bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Walden on Lake Conroe home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$12,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $344,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $346,985 HARMLS