4220 Plantation Oaks Blvd #1715 · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32065

$190,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2010 Est $289k · 34% under $462/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath town home in Plantation Oaks offers a functional layout and low-maintenance living in a highly convenient location making this townhome one of the best values around. The main level features durable LVP flooring across the entry, dining, and living areas, stainless steel appliances, creating a functional and easy-to-maintain space. The layout flows naturally into the living area for everyday use or entertaining. Upstairs includes all three bedrooms, including a private primary suite. AC replaced just 1 year ago, offering comfort and peace of mind. Located minutes from Blanding Blvd, shopping, dining, and I-295 for quick access to Jacksonville.

Key facts

• $462 HOA
• Built 2010
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available
• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $462 monthly; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Attached property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private road frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Cable available
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-912/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Plantation Oaks Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 938 students, 48% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,568 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,380
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
441 Sunstone Ct	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-3%)	22mo	$230,000	$160	58
477 Glendale Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+3%)	19mo	$301,500	$196	50
890 Misty Oak St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$208	50
3686 Hawks View Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-2%)	15mo	$290,000	$198	49
551 Glendale Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+4%)	15mo	$300,000	$195	49
4112 Grayfield Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+12%)	22mo	$295,000	$178	46
874 Glendale Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+13%)	1mo	$329,900	$197	44
586 Drysdale Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+12%)	9mo	$305,000	$184	44
351 Saint James Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+14%)	11mo	$315,000	$186	38
3610 Old Village Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (+14%)	8mo	$285,000	$169	36
3575 Old Village Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+14%)	14mo	$316,000	$186	35
826 Glendale Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-13%)	22mo	$305,800	$236	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-33,921
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,675
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$462
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $176,568

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-22	+0% $-76	+5% $-130	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-155	+0% $-76	+5% $3	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-28	base $-76	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4220 Plantation Oaks Blvd #2016 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1516	$1,850	$1.22	25d	1	0.01mi
448 Running Woods St Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,850	$1.39	25d	1	0.14mi
3972 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	25d	1	0.16mi
3996 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,524	$1.66	6d	1	0.17mi
3740 Creswick Cir #8 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1824	$1,950	$1.07	0d	1	0.17mi
513 Spanish Oaks Way Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,600	$1.44	19d	1	0.24mi
3978 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,595	$1.44	25d	1	0.25mi
607 Crystal Way Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	6d	1	0.29mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	4d	7	0.31mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	0d	5	0.31mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,300	$2.37	25d	6	0.31mi
396 Forest Meadow Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,826	$1.09	23d	1	0.42mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	4d	2	0.53mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	25d	1	0.53mi
630 Glendale Ln Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	19d	1	0.76mi
630 Glendale Ln Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	0d	1	0.76mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	25d	1	0.77mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	1.05mi
3875 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1874	$2,366	$1.26	0d	1	1.07mi
3800 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,900	$1.40	0d	1	1.08mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	6d	1	1.08mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	4d	2	1.11mi
4123 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,045	$1.53	4d	1	1.11mi
250 Cherry Ridge Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,753	$1.61	5d	14	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $462 · $5,544/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$235/yr (+$20/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − HOA: −$5,544
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $190,000 realMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.