540 Broken Arrow Ln #538 · Kyle, TX 78640

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the first to live in this brand-new spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with brand new kitchen appliances. Enjoy a large laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, a walk-in pantry, a covered porch, a storage shed, and a 3-car driveway. Spacious bedrooms and a large dining room make this home perfect for everyday living.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 3-car driveway
• Storage shed

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• 3-CAR DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $109,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family style (plan: 540 Broken Arrow Lane); Located at 540 Broken Arrow Ln #538, Kyle, TX 78640
• Exterior features: Living area 1560

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tobias El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 683 students, 52% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $108,345 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.42%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $23,140
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $58,736
• Equity at exit: $9,510

Cash invested: $30,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,995

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $767	+0% $729	+5% $691	+10% $653
Rent	-10% $581	-5% $655	+0% $729	+5% $804	+10% $878
Rate	-1.0pp $785	-0.5pp $757	base $729	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,499
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Plum Path Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,149	$1.10	3d	1	0.24mi
1685 Twin Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	0.29mi
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,399	$0.86	3d	1	0.29mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,795	$1.32	6d	1	0.32mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,825	$1.34	45d	1	0.32mi
850 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	25d	1	0.36mi
120 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,945	$0.95	19d	1	0.41mi
1579 Violet Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	0.41mi
410 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,795	$1.08	45d	1	0.43mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	19d	1	0.44mi
1477 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,759	$1.13	23d	1	0.45mi
1469 Breanna Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,650	$1.24	19d	1	0.47mi
1437 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	0.49mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	45d	1	0.57mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	45d	1	0.60mi
270 Sheep Trail Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,785	$1.13	45d	1	0.60mi
130 Peach Tree Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2198	$1,900	$0.86	19d	1	0.63mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	0.63mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	12d	1	0.63mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	16d	1	0.65mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	6d	1	0.66mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	0.66mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	0.66mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	0.67mi
521 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1870	$1,935	$1.03	0d	15	0.68mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	45d	1	0.68mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	19d	1	0.75mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	6d	1	0.76mi
1187 Amy Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,100	$1.10	19d	1	0.77mi
1628 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	45d	1	0.78mi
1561 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	4d	1	0.83mi
131 Connor Elkins Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2015	$2,000	$0.99	6d	1	0.86mi
125 Chesterfield Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,350	$1.18	45d	1	0.89mi
2681 Winding Creek Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,875	$1.07	45d	1	0.91mi
1180 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,999	$1.10	6d	1	0.93mi
110 Keltic Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,895	$1.08	16d	1	0.93mi
2721 Winding Creek Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	0d	1	0.94mi
117 Keltic Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,850	$1.29	19d	1	0.94mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.97mi
124 Fabion St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2025	$2,100	$1.04	19d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,995 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,995 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,995 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,995 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,995 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,995 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,995 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 322-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $109,995 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,161
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $7,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $6,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready with modern appliances and fixtures. It offers a spacious layout and a covered porch, making it perfect for everyday living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Improves energy efficiency and ambiance
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Improves energy efficiency and ambiance ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B