12680 Glass Rd · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1999 10 ac lot $179/sqft · 63% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits on 10 beautiful acres outside the city limits! If you've been searching for privacy, peace, and room to roam, this property delivers. With no front door neighbors and wide-open space in every direction, you'll enjoy the quiet country setting that's getting harder to find. The manufactured home on site will require significant repairs and renovation, making this an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build new. Whether you choose to restore the existing home or start fresh, the true value here is the land. Ten acres offer endless possibilities — bring your animals, start a hobby farm, create trails, build a workshop, or design your dream home exactly the way you want it. There's plenty of room for gardens, outdoor recreation, and enjoying nature right outside your door. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and unlock the potential of a peaceful rural property, this could be the perfect fit. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Hobby farm
• 10 beautiful acres

Tags

• 10 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• QUIET COUNTRY SETTING
• HOBBY FARM
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Water Valley ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #363 of 1,141 in TX (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,026 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,157
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 63.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $120,340
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $372,267
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $203,764

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $229,000 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on 10 beautiful acres outside the city limits! If you've been searching for privacy, peace, and room to roam, this property delivers. With no front door neighbors and wide-open space in every direction, you'll enjoy the quiet country setting that's getting harder to find. The manufactured home on site will require significant repairs and renovation, making this an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build new. Whether you choose to restore the existing home or start fresh, the true value here is the land. Ten acres offer endless possibilities — bring your animals, start a hobby farm, create trails, build a workshop, or design your dream home exactly the way you want it. There's plenty of room for gardens, outdoor recreation, and enjoying nature right outside your door. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and unlock the potential of a peaceful rural property, this could be the perfect fit. Sold as-is.

18. 2026-02-25
    listed $245,000 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on 10 beautiful acres outside the city limits! If you've been searching for privacy, peace, and room to roam, this property delivers. With no front door neighbors and wide-open space in every direction, you'll enjoy the quiet country setting that's getting harder to find. The manufactured home on site will require significant repairs and renovation, making this an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build new. Whether you choose to restore the existing home or start fresh, the true value here is the land. Ten acres offer endless possibilities — bring your animals, start a hobby farm, create trails, build a workshop, or design your dream home exactly the way you want it. There's plenty of room for gardens, outdoor recreation, and enjoying nature right outside your door. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and unlock the potential of a peaceful rural property, this could be the perfect fit. Sold as-is.

19. 2025-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,293/yr (+$191/mo · 120.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $-323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Water Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844710
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,785
• Composite: 44.57/100
• National rank: #6043
• State rank: #363 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $229,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-25 Listed $245,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,898 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.