Is 231 Canvasback Trl in Brandon, MS a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.0% cap rate and $-1,655/mo modeled cash flow at a $359,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 231 Canvasback Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 3.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,347/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.12

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.0/10.0
Cash flow +4.1/30.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.2/5.0
1% rule +0.3/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$359,900

231 Canvasback Trl · Brandon, MS 39047

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,091 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.25 ac lot 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Jasmine is a single-story that features 4-bedrooms and 2-bathrooms in over 2,000 square feet of space with a 2-car garage. Entering the home from the front porch to one side, are two bedrooms nestled close to a full bathroom and access to the laundry room. An additional bedroom is directly across the foyer which also allows access to the garage. The Jasmine has a fabulous open kitchen, featuring a walk-in pantry and large island with granite countertops that is perfectly suited for bar-dining. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living room areas leading outside to a large, covered porch for an extended living and entertaining space. The spacious primary bedroom, located at the back of the home for privacy, offers natural light from large windows creating an inviting, spacious retreat. The ensuite bathroom has a double vanity with granite countertop, garden tub, standing shower, separate water closet and a large walk-in closet. The Jasmine includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. Pictures may be of a similar home and not necessarily of the subject property. Pictures are representational only. Schedule your tour to see the Jasmine today!

Key facts

Cozy breakfast nook
Granite countertops
0.25 acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (42.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (34.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $207k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.9% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,582 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.53% ✗
Cap rate: 2.99%
Cash-on-cash: -11.80%
DSCR: 0.47
GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $446,090
List price: $359,900
Delta: -19.32%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Canvasback Trl	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,961 (-6%)	1mo	$349,900	$178	79
218 Lizzy Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,225 (+6%)	0mo	$449,000	$202	52
226 Lizzy Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,234 (+7%)	12mo	$435,600	$195	40
215 Lizzy Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,234 (+7%)	20mo	$446,800	$200	36
207 Lizzy Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+9%)	12mo	$420,000	$184	36
234 Lizzy Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+9%)	21mo	$456,000	$200	31
222 Lizzy Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+11%)	17mo	$464,400	$200	31
202 Lizzy Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,367 (+13%)	13mo	$435,800	$184	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -47.2%
Equity multiple: -0.42×
Total profit: $-177,644
Equity at exit: $66,513

10-year hold

IRR: -89.6%
Equity multiple: -1.32×
Total profit: $-290,191
Equity at exit: $38,570

Cash invested: $124,905 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 10 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $347,400 ($177/sqft)
Median days on market: 119 d
This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +20.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

Home prices YoY: -32.6%
Rents YoY: 2.9%
Active inventory: 662
Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,347 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,339
Tax est. 1.5%: −$558 /mo · $6,691/yr
Insurance: −$186
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
Net cashflow: $-1,655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,442

Max offer price $206,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,347	-5% $-1,501	+0% $-1,655	+5% $-1,809	+10% $-1,963
Rent	-10% $-1,841	-5% $-1,748	+0% $-1,655	+5% $-1,562	+10% $-1,470
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,431	-0.5pp $-1,542	base $-1,655	+0.5pp $-1,771	+1.0pp $-1,888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $111,523
Closing costs: $13,383
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lot size approximately 0.25 acreZoned for single-family residential
HOA & community: Homeowners association presentAssociation fees include accounting/legal, insurance, and management

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garageConcrete drive/parkingGarage door opener
Security: Smoke detectorsDeadbolt locks
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connected (natural gas in kitchen)Sewer connectedWater connectedSmart home wiring
Home design: Single-family houseOne-storyUnder construction (new construction)Builder model: The JasmineFacing direction: not specified
Construction: Brick and HardiPlank-type exteriorPost-tension slab foundation
Exterior features: Architectural shingle roofCorner lot, landscaped with marked cornersPool in the community

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalFree-standing gas rangeMicrowavePlumbed for ice makerStainless steel appliancesGranite countertopsKitchen islandBreakfast barPantry
Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) (primary and/or other bedrooms)
Flooring: Luxury vinylCarpet
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity(s)Soaking tub
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features: Breakfast barCeiling fansCrown moldingDouble vanitiesEntrance foyerGranite countertopsHigh ceilingsKitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryRecessed lightingSmart home features (including smart thermostat)Soaking tubTray ceilingsWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookupsElectric dryer hookupWasher hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $359,900 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $359,900 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $359,900 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $359,900 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $359,900 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $359,900 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $359,900 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $359,900 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $359,900 Active 110 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $359,900 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $359,900 Active 108 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $359,900 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $359,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $359,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $359,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $359,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $359,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $359,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $359,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $359,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $359,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $359,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $359,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $359,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $359,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $359,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $359,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $359,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $359,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $359,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $359,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $359,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $359,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $359,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $359,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $359,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $359,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $359,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $359,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $359,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $359,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $359,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $359,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $359,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $359,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $359,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $359,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $359,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $359,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $359,900 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,165
− Mortgage interest: −$24,988
− Property taxes: −$6,691
− Insurance: −$7,349
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
− Management: −$2,253
− Depreciation: −$12,977
Taxable loss: −$28,347

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,803
After-tax cash flow: $-13,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Rankin County School District
NCES district ID: 2803830
Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $61,867
Composite: 45.62/100
National rank: #2587
State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

Score: 81/100
State rank: #3
US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
City population: 79,950
Metro: Jackson, MS
Population (ZIP): 40,808
Household income: $100,347
Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 164,317 people
By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
Current HPI: 162.9709
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
Metro: Jackson, MS
State GDP YoY: —
F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-05 Listed $359,900 Zillow
2026-05-28 Listed $359,900 MLSU

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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