22 Clay St · New Haven, CT 06513

$539,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,584 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 7,840 sqft lot Est $516k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this spacious 3-Family home conveniently located just across the bridge in Fair Haven. An excellent opportunity for a homeowner occupant or investor. This home is very well maintained and features a newer roof, newer hot water heaters, a large private driveway, a shed, and an oversized two-car detached garage. The property contains hardwood flooring. All utilities are separately metered. Washer/Dryer hookup located in the basement. 1st and 2nd floors have enclosed sunrooms and the third floor features a large deck. The fenced-in yard and garden area contain many fruit trees, from grapevines to fig trees! Minutes to Downtown New Haven, Yale, Hospitals, Highways, the Train Station, & other amenities! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Newer roof
• Solar panels

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED HOT WATER HEATERS
• SOLAR PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive. Per door: $902/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $539k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,042/mo this rent would consume 199% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 2664% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $151k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $539k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $539,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.52%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $516,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Atwater St	0.29mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,407 (-5%)	9mo	$430,000	$126	66
181 Lombard St	0.43mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,222 (-10%)	1mo	$462,500	$144	57
544 Ferry St	0.28mi	6/2.0 (+1)	3,355 (-6%)	12mo	$540,000	$161	57
483 Quinnipiac Ave	0.65mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,546 (-1%)	13mo	$540,000	$152	52
152 Chatham St	0.32mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,172 (-12%)	21mo	$430,000	$136	43
222 Dover St	0.47mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,108 (-13%)	12mo	$294,800	$95	41
32 Chatham St	0.54mi	5/4.0	3,271 (-9%)	20mo	$430,000	$131	39
60 Chatham St	0.48mi	5/3.0	3,053 (-15%)	16mo	$444,000	$145	39
74 Saltonstall Ave	0.40mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,080 (-14%)	12mo	$700,000	$227	39
248 Lexington Ave	0.71mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,303 (-8%)	18mo	$450,000	$136	33
320 Lexington Ave	0.70mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,328 (-7%)	21mo	$525,000	$158	29
26 Clifton St	0.68mi	6/5.0 (+1)	3,888 (+8%)	19mo	$495,000	$127	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $94,265
• Equity at exit: $80,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $342,804
• Equity at exit: $46,603

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06513

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$596 /mo · $7,148/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,689
• Net cashflow: $2,706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,616

Max offer price $539,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,011	-5% $2,859	+0% $2,706	+5% $2,554	+10% $2,401
Rent	-10% $2,071	-5% $2,389	+0% $2,706	+5% $3,024	+10% $3,342
Rate	-1.0pp $2,978	-0.5pp $2,843	base $2,706	+0.5pp $2,567	+1.0pp $2,425

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	5	3	$8,043
Total (3 units)			$8,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Lloyd St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2621	$2,400	$0.92	3d	1	0.22mi
168 Lloyd St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	4131	$2,500	$0.61	24d	1	0.39mi
648 Ferry St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	4188	$2,400	$0.57	44d	1	0.45mi
315 Humphrey St Unit A New Haven, CT	4.0	3.5	2465	$4,500	$1.83	4d	1	0.94mi
30 Trumbull St New Haven, CT	5.0	4.0	2668	$5,000	$1.87	4d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $539,000 Active
3. 2022-03-01
   soldstatus $335,000
4. 2022-02-25
   soldstatus $335,000 Closed 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Don’t miss this spacious 3-Family home conveniently located just across the bridge in Fair Haven. An excellent opportunity for a homeowner occupant or investor. This home is very well maintained and features a newer roof, newer hot water heaters, a large private driveway, a shed, and an oversized two-car detached garage. The property contains hardwood flooring. All utilities are separately metered. Washer/Dryer hookup located in the basement. 1st and 2nd floors have enclosed sunrooms and the third floor features a large deck. The fenced-in yard and garden area contain many fruit trees, from grapevines to fig trees! Minutes to Downtown New Haven, Yale, Hospitals, Highways, the Train Station, & other amenities! Schedule your showing today!

5. 2021-11-16
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Don’t miss this spacious 3-Family home conveniently located just across the bridge in Fair Haven. An excellent opportunity for a homeowner occupant or investor. This home is very well maintained and features a newer roof, newer hot water heaters, a large private driveway, a shed, and an oversized two-car detached garage. The property contains hardwood flooring. All utilities are separately metered. Washer/Dryer hookup located in the basement. 1st and 2nd floors have enclosed sunrooms and the third floor features a large deck. The fenced-in yard and garden area contain many fruit trees, from grapevines to fig trees! Minutes to Downtown New Haven, Yale, Hospitals, Highways, the Train Station, & other amenities! Schedule your showing today!

6. 2021-11-12
   listed $329,900 Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Don’t miss this spacious 3-Family home conveniently located just across the bridge in Fair Haven. An excellent opportunity for a homeowner occupant or investor. This home is very well maintained and features a newer roof, newer hot water heaters, a large private driveway, a shed, and an oversized two-car detached garage. The property contains hardwood flooring. All utilities are separately metered. Washer/Dryer hookup located in the basement. 1st and 2nd floors have enclosed sunrooms and the third floor features a large deck. The fenced-in yard and garden area contain many fruit trees, from grapevines to fig trees! Minutes to Downtown New Haven, Yale, Hospitals, Highways, the Train Station, & other amenities! Schedule your showing today!

7. 2021-11-01
   historical $329,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Don’t miss this spacious 3-Family home conveniently located just across the bridge in Fair Haven. An excellent opportunity for a homeowner occupant or investor. This home is very well maintained and features a newer roof, newer hot water heaters, a large private driveway, a shed, and an oversized two-car detached garage. The property contains hardwood flooring. All utilities are separately metered. Washer/Dryer hookup located in the basement. 1st and 2nd floors have enclosed sunrooms and the third floor features a large deck. The fenced-in yard and garden area contain many fruit trees, from grapevines to fig trees! Minutes to Downtown New Haven, Yale, Hospitals, Highways, the Train Station, & other amenities! Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,148 · $596/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,341 · $778/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,193/yr (+$183/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$7,148
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,720
• − Management: −$7,720
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable income: $25,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,084
• After-tax cash flow: $26,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 38,888
• Household income: $48,500
• Rent vs Own: 59.7% rent · 40.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2664.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 26% Black 22% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.87%
• Current HPI: 364.006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+63.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $539,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) $335,000 Smart MLS
• 2021-11-16 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2021-11-12 Listed $329,900 Smart MLS
• 2021-11-01 Coming Soon $329,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,148 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.