13601 Lake Hatchineha Rd · Poinciana, FL 33844

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 323 Days on market

Built 1989 8,934 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Major price reduction. Bring offers on this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom easy to maintain lake house. Welcome to Lake Hatchineha, a desirable lakefront community with NO HOA. You have canal access to the Kissimmee Chain of Lakes known for its Bass tournaments and excellent Spec fishing. On this 6665 acre lake you can enjoy air boating, water skiing and recreational areas on the Kissimmee River. You and your guests can kick back and relax in this easy to maintain home with a metal roof. The split bedroom plan offers an en suite for the primary bedroom and a full bathroom with 2 more bedrooms at the other end of the home. There is a 2 car carport with additional covered parking for 3 more spaces. Th

Key facts

• Lakefront community
• Metal roof
• En suite

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• CANAL ACCESS
• KISSIMMEE CHAIN OF LAKES
• METAL ROOF
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• EN SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No HOA (association not present); Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Faces north; One story; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Storage; Paved road access; Well on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($175/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $165k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.46%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-28,941
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-36,376
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $61	+0% $15	+5% $-32	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-58	+0% $15	+5% $87	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $57	base $15	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 N Lakeview Dr Apt 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	12d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 319 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 318 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,900 Active 304 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,900 Active 303 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,900 Active 302 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $185,900
16. 2026-01-14
    price $199,000
17. 2025-12-18
    price $215,000
18. 2025-10-17
    price $220,000
19. 2025-08-02
    listed $229,000 Active
20. 2005-12-16
    listed $160,000
21. 2004-03-18
    soldstatus $70,000
22. 1995-10-02
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 44.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+364.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $185,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-16 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · -9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.