Plan Merrivale Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$469,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 266 days

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE RESORT-STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• ON-SITE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

🏗️ New construction. The $469,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $484,319.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $470k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,641 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,319
• List price: $469,990
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-4%)	8mo	$449,900	$222	78
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-4%)	10mo	$502,900	$248	76
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+11%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	72
2628 Muirwood Way	0.08mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	65
1604 Victoria Pl	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	63
2736 Acadia Mews	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	61
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	60
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+10%)	9mo	$525,000	$228	59
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (-2%)	2mo	$594,000	$290	55
1624 Palo Duro Way	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,349 (+12%)	12mo	$499,999	$213	55
1604 Palo Duro Way	0.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	10mo	$524,900	$225	54
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+5%)	12mo	$530,000	$241	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-138,722
• Equity at exit: $72,213

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-222,598
• Equity at exit: $41,875

Cash invested: $135,609 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 73 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.7 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $502,990 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 267 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,540
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$605 /mo · $7,265/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,237

Max offer price $368,825

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-463	-5% $-631	+0% $-798	+5% $-966	+10% $-1,133
Rent	-10% $-1,053	-5% $-926	+0% $-798	+5% $-671	+10% $-543
Rate	-1.0pp $-554	-0.5pp $-675	base $-798	+0.5pp $-924	+1.0pp $-1,051

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,080
• Closing costs: $14,530
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.11mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.11mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.13mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.11mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.16mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.27mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.30mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.41mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,648	$1.91	3d	16	1.42mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	37d	1	1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	73d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $469,990 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $469,990 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $469,990 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $469,990 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $469,990 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $469,990 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $469,990 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $469,990 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $469,990 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $469,990 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $469,990 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $469,990 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $469,990 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $469,990 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $469,990 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $469,990 Active 245 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $469,990 Active 244 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $469,990 Active 243 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $469,990 Active 242 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 241 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $469,990 Active 240 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $469,990 Active 239 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $469,990 Active 238 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $469,990 Active 237 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $469,990 Active 235 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $469,990 Active 234 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $469,990 Active 233 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $469,990 Active 232 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 231 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $469,990 Active 230 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $466,990 Active 229 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $466,990 Active 228 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $466,990 Active 227 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $466,990 Active 226 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $466,990 Active 225 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $466,990 Active 224 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $466,990 Active 222 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $466,990 Active 220 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $466,990 Active 219 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $466,990 Active 216 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $466,990 Active 215 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $466,990 Active 214 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $466,990 Active 213 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $466,990 Active 211 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $466,990 Active 207 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $466,990 Active 206 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $466,990 Active 205 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $463,990 Active 202 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $463,990 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,129
• − Property taxes: −$7,265
• − Insurance: −$2,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,097
• − Management: −$3,097
• − Depreciation: −$14,089
• Taxable loss: −$18,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,412
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $463,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $478,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $493,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $488,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Listed $503,990 Zillow