Plan Merrivale Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$466,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 218 days

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE RESORT-STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• ON-SITE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

🏗️ New construction. The $466,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $484,048.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $467k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2925 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,537 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,048
• List price: $466,990
• Delta: -3.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-4%)	6mo	$449,900	$222	80
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-4%)	9mo	$502,900	$248	77
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+11%)	3mo	$464,900	$200	73
2628 Muirwood Way	0.08mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	3mo	$475,900	$204	66
1604 Victoria Pl	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	1mo	$474,900	$203	64
2736 Acadia Mews	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	63
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	6mo	$474,900	$203	61
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+10%)	7mo	$525,000	$228	60
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (-2%)	1mo	$594,000	$290	56
1624 Palo Duro Way	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,349 (+12%)	10mo	$499,999	$213	56
1604 Palo Duro Way	0.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+11%)	8mo	$524,900	$225	56
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+5%)	10mo	$530,000	$241	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-100,688
• Equity at exit: $72,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-146,561
• Equity at exit: $41,852

Cash invested: $135,533 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2925
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,538
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$605 /mo · $7,261/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,234

Max offer price $460,157

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $2	+0% $-165	+5% $-332	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-324	+0% $-165	+5% $-6	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $-42	base $-165	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,012
• Closing costs: $14,521
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	0d	1	0.14mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	25d	1	1.16mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	20d	1	1.27mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.30mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	44d	1	1.41mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,682	$1.94	0d	13	1.42mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $466,990 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $466,990 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $466,990 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $466,990 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $466,990 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $466,990 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $466,990 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $466,990 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $466,990 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $463,990 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $463,990 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $463,990 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $463,990 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $463,990 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    status Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

16. 2026-03-04
    price $463,990 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

17. 2026-02-03
    historical 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

18. 2026-01-08
    price $478,990 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

19. 2026-01-01
    price $493,990 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

20. 2025-12-05
    price $488,990 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

21. 2025-10-17
    listed $503,990 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    The Parks at Wilson Creek is the newest master-planned community in Celina, well situated within the quaint countryside yet strategically located along the Collin County Outer Loop, giving residents the best of both worlds. It is marked by miles of winding trails, wooded creeks, pristine lakes, and a 100-acre city park. Residents can enjoy a private resort-style pool, fitness center, and various sport courts including pickleball and basketball. The Parks is zoned to Celina ISD and has an on-site elementary school.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,114
• − Property taxes: −$7,261
• − Insurance: −$2,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,864
• − Management: −$3,864
• − Depreciation: −$14,081
• Taxable loss: −$10,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,472
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $463,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $478,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $493,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $488,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Listed $503,990 Zillow