2876 Chili Ave · Gates, NY 14624

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1935 0.59 ac lot Est $225k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious ranch home with huge open floor plan. You are greeted at the front door by a massive living room. The eat in kitchen offers an abundance of storage space in the light wood cabinets, along with a pantry. Down the hall you will find 3 large bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile shower. A finished basement with a half bath, family room and private home office offers the additional living space you’ve been looking for! There is no lack of space to sprawl out in here. Outside enjoy the beautiful backyard, with mature trees and landscaping, from the enclosed porch and the patio. The 1.5 car garage and shed offer tons of space for all your outdoor storage needs. No delayed negotiations gives you the chance to make this close to everything home yours!

Key facts

• Updated ranch
• Tree lined backyard
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE USE SPACE
• TREE LINED BACKYARD
• OPEN PORCH
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Florence Brasser School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 400 students, 41% FRL); Gates-Chili Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #504 of 729 statewide, top 70%, 854 students, 58% FRL); Gates-Chili High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,132 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2876 Chili Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$251,000	$218	99
20 Audabon Ter	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,090 (-5%)	7mo	$165,000	$151	74
20 Bright Oaks Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-3%)	15mo	$218,000	$195	67
11 Wilelen Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+6%)	3mo	$285,000	$233	66
2844 Chili Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	5mo	$162,000	$161	64
19 Berna Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-5%)	1mo	$260,000	$238	64
4 Phyllis Ln	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-1%)	10mo	$229,900	$201	62
28 Berna Ln	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,258 (+9%)	10mo	$190,000	$151	56
40 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+4%)	15mo	$215,000	$179	55
210 Westmar Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-5%)	2mo	$214,000	$196	55
4 Entress Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-5%)	10mo	$210,000	$193	52
26 Chestnut Ridge Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	10mo	$159,900	$159	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,802
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $688
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,127/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $228	+0% $179	+5% $129	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $99	+0% $179	+5% $259	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $223	base $179	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
456 Westside Dr Unit 6 Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	994	$2,100	$2.11	5d	1	0.77mi
200 Mulcahy Blvd Unit 12-B Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,898	$1.81	4d	1	1.21mi
173 Bending Creek Rd Gates, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	860	$1,595	$1.85	4d	7	1.36mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2022-02-07
   soldstatus $158,000 Closed Sale or Rented 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with huge open floor plan. You are greeted at the front door by a massive living room. The eat in kitchen offers an abundance of storage space in the light wood cabinets, along with a pantry. Down the hall you will find 3 large bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile shower. A finished basement with a half bath, family room and private home office offers the additional living space you’ve been looking for! There is no lack of space to sprawl out in here. Outside enjoy the beautiful backyard, with mature trees and landscaping, from the enclosed porch and the patio. The 1.5 car garage and shed offer tons of space for all your outdoor storage needs. No delayed negotiations gives you the chance to make this close to everything home yours!

4. 2022-02-07
   soldstatus $158,000

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with huge open floor plan. You are greeted at the front door by a massive living room. The eat in kitchen offers an abundance of storage space in the light wood cabinets, along with a pantry. Down the hall you will find 3 large bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile shower. A finished basement with a half bath, family room and private home office offers the additional living space you’ve been looking for! There is no lack of space to sprawl out in here. Outside enjoy the beautiful backyard, with mature trees and landscaping, from the enclosed porch and the patio. The 1.5 car garage and shed offer tons of space for all your outdoor storage needs. No delayed negotiations gives you the chance to make this close to everything home yours!

5. 2021-12-16
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with huge open floor plan. You are greeted at the front door by a massive living room. The eat in kitchen offers an abundance of storage space in the light wood cabinets, along with a pantry. Down the hall you will find 3 large bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile shower. A finished basement with a half bath, family room and private home office offers the additional living space you’ve been looking for! There is no lack of space to sprawl out in here. Outside enjoy the beautiful backyard, with mature trees and landscaping, from the enclosed porch and the patio. The 1.5 car garage and shed offer tons of space for all your outdoor storage needs. No delayed negotiations gives you the chance to make this close to everything home yours!

6. 2021-12-14
   listed $139,900 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Spacious ranch home with huge open floor plan. You are greeted at the front door by a massive living room. The eat in kitchen offers an abundance of storage space in the light wood cabinets, along with a pantry. Down the hall you will find 3 large bedrooms and an updated full bath with tile shower. A finished basement with a half bath, family room and private home office offers the additional living space you’ve been looking for! There is no lack of space to sprawl out in here. Outside enjoy the beautiful backyard, with mature trees and landscaping, from the enclosed porch and the patio. The 1.5 car garage and shed offer tons of space for all your outdoor storage needs. No delayed negotiations gives you the chance to make this close to everything home yours!

7. 2021-11-07
   historical
8. 2021-10-07
   listed $149,000 Active
9. 2008-11-21
   soldstatus $95,000
10. 1993-05-27
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,127 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,127 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,127
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$125
• After-tax cash flow: $2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #10531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+130.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $175,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-07 Sold (MLS) $158,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-12-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-12-14 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-11-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2021-10-07 Listed $149,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,127 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.