lot 1 Griffin Rd · Ludowici, GA 31316

$199,933

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.5

Listing remarks

LOT 1 SIT ON ABOUT HALF AN ACRE!!! Don't miss out on this Charming NEW 4 bedroom / 2-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Grass Seed has been planted. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation. Home is not on lot yet will be by July 10 2026!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 73 days

🏗️ New construction. The $199,933 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,703.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 5.3% in Ludowici — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 478 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $165,789 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,703
• List price: $199,933
• Delta: -28.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1297 Talmadge Rd	1.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-0%)	2mo	$251,500	$165	58
3573 SE Arnall Dr	1.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+5%)	3mo	$246,900	$155	50
144 Whispering Pines Rd	1.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-4%)	13mo	$205,000	$141	42
83 Pinewood Ln	1.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (-7%)	11mo	$274,500	$193	40
3597 SE Arnall Dr	1.26mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+20%)	2mo	$255,000	$139	38
1934 Talmadge Rd	1.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-11%)	4mo	$150,000	$111	38
593 Deer Meadow Way SE	1.05mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+14%)	5mo	$298,090	$172	37
190 Deer Meadow Way SE	1.01mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+14%)	10mo	$301,475	$174	34
107 Deer Meadow Way SE	1.01mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+14%)	11mo	$285,725	$165	33
151 Hunters Branch Dr	1.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,164 (-24%)	5mo	$182,500	$157	30
340 Hunters Branch Dr	1.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-24%)	10mo	$210,000	$182	27
65 Morningside Dr	1.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-15%)	10mo	$248,500	$191	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-31,849
• Equity at exit: $97,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-23,155
• Equity at exit: $131,305

Cash invested: $78,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $139,999 ($78/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +134.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,462
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,181/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,438

Max offer price $189,520

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-424	-5% $-520	+0% $-616	+5% $-713	+10% $-809
Rent	-10% $-747	-5% $-682	+0% $-616	+5% $-551	+10% $-485
Rate	-1.0pp $-476	-0.5pp $-545	base $-616	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,676
• Closing costs: $8,361
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	93d	1	0.57mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Seaside Realty Services

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family manufactured homeUnder construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingManufactured house construction
• Exterior features: No exterior features specifiedNo fencingShingle roofLot fronts a highwayOther lot featuresApproximately 0.34-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplaceCrawl space basement6 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $199,933 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-07-16
   pricedays on market $199,934 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $199,935 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-07-14
   pricedays on market $199,935 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-07-14
   price $199,936 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $199,937 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-07-12
   days on market $199,937 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-07-11
   pricedays on market $199,937 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-07-10
   days on market $199,938 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-07-10
    price $199,938 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $199,939 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-07-08
    pricedays on market $199,940 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,941 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-07-07
    price $199,941 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,942 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,942 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-07-04
    days on market $199,942 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,942 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,942 Active 57 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,942 Active 56 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,942 Active 55 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,942 Active 54 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,942 Active 53 DOM
24. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,942 Active 52 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,942 Active 51 DOM
26. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $199,942 Active 50 DOM
27. 2026-06-23
    days on market $199,944 Active 47 DOM
28. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,944 Active 46 DOM
29. 2026-06-19
    days on market $199,944 Active 44 DOM
30. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,944 Active 43 DOM
31. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,944 Active 42 DOM
32. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,944 Active 41 DOM
33. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,944 Active 40 DOM
34. 2026-06-14
    days on market $199,944 Active 38 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $199,944 Active 37 DOM
36. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $199,946 Active 35 DOM
37. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,947 Active 34 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $199,947 Active 33 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    remarks 598-char remark
40. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $199,948 Active 32 DOM
41. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $199,949 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,951 Active 28 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    price $199,951 Active 27 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,954 Active 27 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,954 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,954 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,954 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-05-18
    price $199,957 550-char remark
49. 2026-05-16
    price $199,959 550-char remark
50. 2026-05-13
    price $199,960 550-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,612
• − Property taxes: −$4,181
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,108
• Taxable loss: −$12,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming new home is move-in ready with a good condition score and modern updates. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through minor exterior and interior enhancements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Install new window treatments — Updated window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing curb appeal and providing a welcoming entrance ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 24,669 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Seaside Realty Services

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family manufactured homeUnder construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingManufactured house construction
• Exterior features: No exterior features specifiedNo fencingShingle roofLot fronts a highwayOther lot featuresApproximately 0.34-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplaceCrawl space basement6 total rooms

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $199,944 HABR
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $199,945 HABR
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $199,946 HABR
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $199,947 HABR
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $199,948 HABR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $199,949 HABR
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $199,951 HABR
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $199,954 HABR
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $199,955 HABR
• 2026-05-26 Relisted — HABR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $199,956 HABR
• 2026-05-21 Delisted — HABR
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,957 HABR
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $199,959 HABR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $199,960 HABR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $199,961 HABR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,962 HABR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,963 HABR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,964 HABR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $199,965 HABR