512 S Gray St · Killeen, TX 76541

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot $58/sqft · 17% below area Est $121k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this over sized lot, this home can be remodeled or turned into a business. This property would be great for truck parking, retail store or daycare.

Key facts

• Over sized lot
• Truck parking
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• OVER SIZED LOT
• TRUCK PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,177
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -17.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 S Gray St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,714 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$47	99
1005 Redondo Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+2%)	3mo	$185,000	$106	68
612 Carrie Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,763 (+3%)	1mo	$125,000	$71	61
409 W Mary Jane Dr W	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,744 (+2%)	11mo	$185,000	$106	51
507 Harbour Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-14%)	6mo	$130,000	$88	40
1208 S 2nd St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,503 (-12%)	21mo	$114,900	$76	37
1007 Houston St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,470 (-14%)	9mo	$90,000	$61	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.26% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,494
• Equity at exit: $40,864

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,593
• Equity at exit: $59,957

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76541

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,177/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $183	+0% $155	+5% $126	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $105	+0% $155	+5% $204	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $180	base $155	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 E Voelter Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$995	$0.82	24d	1	0.45mi
907 Wells St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1050	$950	$0.90	24d	1	0.46mi
724 Carrie Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	45d	1	0.48mi
910 San Antonio St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1208	$995	$0.82	45d	1	0.49mi
907 San Antonio St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1303	$1,195	$0.92	45d	1	0.50mi
409 Short Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1220	$1,300	$1.07	45d	1	0.51mi
1003 San Antonio St Killeen, TX	4.0	1.0	1452	$1,095	$0.75	45d	1	0.52mi
205 W Vardeman Ave Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1824	$925	$0.51	45d	1	0.52mi
913 Estelle Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1292	$1,445	$1.12	15d	1	0.52mi
506 Powell St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1546	$1,400	$0.91	45d	1	0.54mi
1404 E Vardeman Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$1,695	$0.90	15d	1	0.56mi
605 Stringer St Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1334	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.57mi
909 Houston St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	45d	1	0.57mi
1205 Florence Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1989	$1,450	$0.73	24d	1	0.57mi
512 Raymond St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,300	$0.97	45d	1	0.60mi
512 Raymond St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,300	$0.97	24d	1	0.60mi
1417 Jasper Garden Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	45d	1	0.65mi
1302 Redondo Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,200	$0.90	45d	1	0.68mi
501 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1286	$1,250	$0.97	24d	1	0.73mi
717 Norris Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.74mi
1004 Mary Jane Cir Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,550	$0.95	24d	1	0.74mi
1201 Greenwood Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	45d	1	0.74mi
905 Parmer Ave Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1672	$750	$0.45	45d	1	0.80mi
1414 Alta Mira Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1294	$1,099	$0.85	24d	1	0.80mi
1302 Metropolitan Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1883	$1,550	$0.82	24d	1	0.81mi
801 S W S Young Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,043	$1.99	15d	12	0.83mi
514 McArthur Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1084	$995	$0.92	45d	1	0.84mi
302 Washington St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2075	$1,495	$0.72	45d	1	0.86mi
505 W Church Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,100	$0.95	15d	1	0.89mi
1313 Elia St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,050	$0.95	45d	1	0.90mi
1315 Estes Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	24d	1	0.92mi
2218 Terrace Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	15d	1	0.94mi
1305 Arkansas Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,300	$1.02	24d	1	0.94mi
715 Cardinal Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1142	$800	$0.70	45d	1	0.94mi
2307 Terrace Dr Unit C Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$850	$0.71	15d	1	1.02mi
1015 N 10th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,100	$0.98	45d	1	1.03mi
1505 S W S Young Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	1.0	1441	$1,150	$0.80	24d	1	1.05mi
1402 Missouri Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1052	$1,525	$1.45	45d	1	1.05mi
1111 N College St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$995	$0.81	15d	1	1.05mi
1504 S W S Young Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,100	$1.03	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Come check out this over sized lot, this home can be remodeled or turned into a business. This property would be great for truck parking, retail store or daycare.

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $100,000 Active 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Come check out this over sized lot, this home can be remodeled or turned into a business. This property would be great for truck parking, retail store or daycare.

3. 1999-04-27
   soldstatus
4. 1994-04-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,177
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,011
• Household income: $37,349
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% White 31% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Current HPI: 168.1206
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 1999-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,177 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.