2334 Sanbar Rd #22 · Graford, TX 76449

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1982 Average condition 6,316 sqft lot $159/sqft · 148% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in an ideal lakefront location overlooking the peaceful cove, this beautiful property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and community living. Enjoy stunning water views from the spacious covered porch, the perfect spot for morning coffee, evening sunsets, or entertaining guests year round. With a setting that captures both privacy and natural beauty, this home is located in a highly desirable community known for its welcoming atmosphere and exceptional surroundings. Whether you’re seeking a full time residence or a weekend retreat, this property delivers the best of lakeside living. Leasehold land, price TBD. Home is sold furnished, less personal items.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Water views
• Lakeside living

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LOCATION
• WATER VIEWS
• COVERED PORCH
• LAKESIDE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions and other restrictions noted; Leasehold waterfront (dock not permitted)
• Financial info: Sale terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association; Community features include boat ramp, community dock, greenbelt, jogging/bike path, perimeter fencing

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: All-weather road access; Asphalt access; Cable available; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Community mailbox; Overhead utilities; Outside city limits / unincorporated area
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Built in 1982; Siding exterior; Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Cleared lot with few trees; Interior lot; Water/lake view; Waterfront (leasehold) on Possum Kingdom Lake; Lakefront common area

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1; Two additional bedrooms on level 1 (total 3 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Flat screen wiring; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.14%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,217
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 148.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2334 Sanbar Rd #70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	12mo	$115,000	$95	85
2334 Sanbar Rd #71	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	1mo	$90,000	$80	80
2334 Sanbar Rd #108	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	19mo	$80,000	$66	77
2334 Sanbar Rd #32	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,210 (-3%)	14mo	$49,999	$41	71
2334 Sanbar Rd #45	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$148,900	$111	66
2334 Sanbar Rd #98	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,062 (-15%)	12mo	$72,000	$68	65
2334 Sanbar Rd Unit 21A	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,408 (+13%)	11mo	$95,000	$67	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,539
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $75,175
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $199,000 Active 681-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $6,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $7,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed, particularly to the exterior siding and landscaping. Painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and discolored, needs repainting or replacement.
• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrown areas need trimming and planting.
• Moderate Carpet — Worn and needs replacement or cleaning.
• Minor Paint — Faded in some areas, touch-up or repainting needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting of exterior siding and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and planting — Improves curb appeal and enhances the home's natural surroundings.
• Both Carpet cleaning or replacement — Enhances comfort and appearance of living spaces, improving both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and discolored, needs repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Some overgrown areas need trimming and planting.	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpet · Worn and needs replacement or cleaning.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Faded in some areas, touch-up or repainting needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$7,000–36,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting of exterior siding and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and planting — Improves curb appeal and enhances the home's natural surroundings. ↑
• Both Carpet cleaning or replacement — Enhances comfort and appearance of living spaces, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,000 NTREIS