Athena Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$275,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · SingleFamily · 455 Days on market

↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Spacious kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,345.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 455 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,899 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 455 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,345
• List price: $275,990
• Delta: -1.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18201 Papuan Cv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,499 (0%)	3mo	$277,490	$185	90
18200 Papuan Cv	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-6%)	2mo	$235,341	$168	81
14509 Bonellis Pass	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,412 (-6%)	1mo	$275,490	$195	78
14713 Eagles Claw Way	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+5%)	1mo	$272,900	$173	78
13016 Field Plow Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+3%)	5mo	$222,600	$144	70
18720 Speculator Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+2%)	8mo	$255,000	$167	70
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-13%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	70
18501 Quiet Range Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$155	70
14600 Wahlbergs Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-13%)	4mo	$292,900	$224	66
18825 Golden Eagle Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+0%)	7mo	$239,990	$160	66
196 Lavender Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+1%)	9mo	$265,392	$175	57
14401 Tawny Eagles Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+11%)	5mo	$260,000	$156	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $129,741
• Equity at exit: $253,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $401,299
• Equity at exit: $546,592

Cash invested: $78,777 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,475
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,220/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,461

Max offer price $227,370

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,336
• Closing costs: $8,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.13mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.15mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.20mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.27mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.27mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.35mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.44mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.47mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.53mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.53mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.54mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.54mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.56mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.66mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.67mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.69mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	0.76mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.77mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	1.02mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	1.14mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	1.19mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,990 Active 455 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,990 Active 454 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,990 Active 453 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,990 Active 452 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,990 Active 450 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,990 Active 446 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 445 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,990 Active 444 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,990 Active 441 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $275,990 Active 440 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 439 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 438 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 437 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $274,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

15. 2026-04-03
    price $273,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

16. 2026-02-20
    price $272,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

17. 2026-02-04
    price $268,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

18. 2026-01-07
    price $266,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

19. 2025-11-04
    price $265,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

20. 2025-10-16
    price $264,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

21. 2025-10-02
    price $281,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

22. 2025-09-04
    price $280,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

23. 2025-08-03
    price $279,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

24. 2025-07-02
    price $291,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

25. 2025-06-04
    price $290,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

26. 2025-05-02
    price $289,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

27. 2025-04-01
    price $288,990 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

28. 2025-03-21
    listed $318,990 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Enter through the front porch into a foyer with two bedrooms and a full bath located near the front of the home. The laundry room and coat closet are also accessible from this hallway. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and great room, creating a spacious main living space. Toward the back, the primary bedroom features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the great room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the foyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,760
• − Property taxes: −$4,220
• − Insurance: −$1,407
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$8,185
• Taxable loss: −$9,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $265,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Listed $318,990 Zillow