617 Horger St · Newton, TX 75966

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1954 0.45 ac lot $81/sqft · 13% below area Est $156k · 13% under ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in a well-established neighborhood! This inviting property offers a comfortable layout with plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car carport, a fenced backyard perfect for pets or outdoor gatherings, and an additional storage building for tools, hobbies, or extra storage needs. The warm character of the home and peaceful neighborhood setting make this property a wonderful place to call home. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and schools.

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Near shopping
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE BUILDING
• WELL ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEAR LOCAL AMENITIES
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.45-acre lot
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,635 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,543
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -13.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $18,975
• Equity at exit: $64,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $64,514
• Equity at exit: $101,802

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,577/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $133,215

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $28	+0% $-10	+5% $-48	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-59	+0% $-10	+5% $38	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $24	base $-10	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $135,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $140,000 Active 546-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,577 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,577
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $135,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $140,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,577 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.