3485 Blaney Dr · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2020 8,712 sqft lot Est $268k · 12% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Camelia C Model. Welcome to this desired community with brick and hardie board siding homes. Enjoy the open floor plan with a deluxe kitchen, great room and dining room. Be a part of the activity from the gathering kitchen with stainless appliances, 42" upper cabinets and granite countertops. Spend less time cleaning with engineered vinyl plank flooring in all living and wet areas and carpet in the bedrooms. Take in the outdoors with the 16x10 truss covered porch. Buy with confidence and get a Two Year Builder Warranty plus a 10-year Bonded Builder Warranty. This is a peaceful neighborhood that is convenient to the interstate and Navy Federal office complex. There are plenty of options for shopping and dining conveniently located near this neighborhood.

Key facts

• Large island
• Granite countertops
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILING LIVING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (covers association)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces; Front entrance parking access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring with circuit breakers; Cable available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-story home; One level; Resale property; Not attached to other units; Homestead eligible; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy backyard fencing; Interior lot; Shingle roof; Paved, county-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 13 by 13; Second bedroom on the first floor, approximately 10 by 12; Third bedroom on the first floor, approximately 10 by 11
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Heat pump; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Recessed lighting; Vaulted ceilings; Smart thermostat; Insulated doors; Double pane windows; Some blinds and drapes; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($429/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,487 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3476 Blaney Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+7%)	14mo	$225,000	$152	74
2913 Ironweed Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+4%)	1mo	$294,900	$204	62
3174 Serviceberry Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	6mo	$284,900	$182	62
2929 Ironweed Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-6%)	1mo	$289,900	$223	60
3142 Serviceberry Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	8mo	$289,900	$185	57
2905 Ironweed Cir	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+4%)	2mo	$296,000	$206	56
3150 Serviceberry Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	9mo	$314,900	$201	56
3085 Serviceberry Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	9mo	$304,900	$194	53
3073 Serviceberry Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	8mo	$309,900	$198	53
3057 Serviceberry Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	8mo	$304,900	$194	52
3025 Serviceberry Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	6mo	$297,900	$190	51
2120 Jarrod Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+14%)	1mo	$270,000	$171	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,810
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-28,277
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,599/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,980

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $102	+0% $36	+5% $-31	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-44	+0% $36	+5% $116	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $96	base $36	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.47mi
9499 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,675	$1.10	16d	1	0.76mi
9433 Nature Creek Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,900	$1.22	16d	1	0.79mi
9525 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,750	$1.15	16d	1	0.81mi
9907 Cali Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1677	$2,160	$1.29	15d	1	1.16mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	1.0–2.5	1010	$1,956	$1.94	16d	113	1.27mi
8573 Myslak Way Unit The Nest Bellview, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,860	$1.75	16d	1	1.41mi
8573 Myslak Way Unit The Retreat Bellview, FL	3.0	2.5	1416	$1,880	$1.33	25d	1	1.41mi
8573 Myslak Way Unit The Oasis Bellview, FL	4.0	2.5	1596	$2,144	$1.34	16d	1	1.41mi
5943 Ravines Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,207	$1.06	15d	9	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,599
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $235,000 PARMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) $220,351 PARMLS
• 2020-09-10 Listed $223,451 PARMLS

Property tax history

+41.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,599 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.