112 Aspen · Bodfish, CA 93205

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1965 8,376 sqft lot $129/sqft · 17% below area Est $179k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a peaceful mountain setting just minutes away from Lake Isabella, this charming cabin-style home offers the perfect blend of comfort, nature, and relaxation. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a cozy loft, this beautiful retreat is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. The warm and inviting interior showcases rustic charm with plenty of natural light and an open living space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The loft adds extra flexibility for a guest area, home office, or additional sleeping space. Surrounded by scenic beauty and outdoor recreation, you’ll enjoy easy access to boating, fishing, hiking, and all the att

Key facts

• Mountain setting
• Cozy loft
• Rustic charm

Tags

• MOUNTAIN SETTING
• CABIN STYLE HOME
• COZY LOFT
• RUSTIC CHARM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family unit (1 total unit); No shared/common walls; Living area and year built per assessor; Parcel number 34910201008
• HOA & community: Community features include biking and a lake

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water (district); Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: House; Two-story; Entry on level 1; Property has a view
• Construction: No accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the main level; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $149k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 12→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,329 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.34%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,203
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -16.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Jones St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$80,000	$69	68
100 Pioneer Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (-1%)	16mo	$120,000	$106	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $83,925
• Equity at exit: $126,967

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $238,003
• Equity at exit: $266,430

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93205

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $193	+0% $151	+5% $109	+10% $67
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $95	+0% $151	+5% $207	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $189	base $151	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Larch Ct Bodfish, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,600	$1.11	3d	1	1.34mi
2324 Bodfish Canyon Rd Bodfish, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,250	$1.20	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    status $149,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $149,000 Active 858-char remark
18. 2025-07-21
    listed $219,000 Active
19. 2025-07-19
    listed $219,000 Active
20. 2012-07-20
    soldstatus $97,500
21. 1989-09-29
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 12 d/yr ≥93°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $1,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bodfish

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1207
• US rank: #26114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bodfish, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,191

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 447.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+246.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $219,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $219,000 SSMLS
• 2012-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1989-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.