212 Santa Rosa Ct · Madison, MS 39110

$319,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,729 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot Est $407k · 21% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this freshly remodeled 4BR/3BA home with 2793 sq ft in Trace Vineyard of Madison. The entire house was painted and new floors in most of the home with wood burning fireplace (Gas); kitchen with cabinets galore, microwave, refrigerator; large master suite with small study; master bath with his/her master closets; study; beautiful deck; workshop/garage out back (737 sq ft) THIS IS NOT PART OF THE HOME Sq ft) sprinkler system ; pre-wired generator hook-up; privacy fenced backyard. This will sell fast so you better move quick. Call to setup your private showing.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Large backyard

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• LARGE BACKYARD
• LARGE DECK
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• HEATED AND COOLED SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $400 annual fee covering management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Detached garage; Circular driveway; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Conventional foundation; Built in public-records year
• Exterior features: Deck; Back-yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Cooktop, Dishwasher, Microwave, Oven; Living room fireplace; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Avenue Lower Elementary (437 students, 99% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #6 of 179 statewide, top 3%, 1,154 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,621
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Napa Valley Cir	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,590 (-5%)	1mo	$375,000	$145	73
909 Monterey Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,875 (+5%)	7mo	$389,900	$136	64
100 Woodbury Park Pl	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,804 (+3%)	3mo	$470,000	$168	57
113 Darrowsby Pl	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,602 (-5%)	8mo	$415,000	$159	56
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-12%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	54
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,393 (-12%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	54
415 Saint Augustine Dr	0.40mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,068 (+12%)	5mo	$385,000	$125	50
110 Greens View Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,665 (-2%)	5mo	$395,000	$148	48
309 Northbay Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,903 (+6%)	7mo	$399,000	$137	46
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,351 (-14%)	1mo	$369,900	$157	46
213 Kiowa Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,352 (-14%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	32
172 Sonnett Cir	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,380 (-13%)	8mo	$379,900	$160	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-37,479
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-17,378
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,035/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,865

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $334	+0% $244	+5% $153	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $118	+0% $244	+5% $369	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $325	base $244	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	24d	1	0.65mi
345 Avonlea Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $319,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $319,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $319,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-26
    listed $319,900 Active
12. 2025-06-20
    historical
13. 2025-04-24
    price $410,000
14. 2025-03-21
    listed $414,000 Active
15. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus
16. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus Closed 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Check out this freshly remodeled 4BR/3BA home with 2793 sq ft in Trace Vineyard of Madison. The entire house was painted and new floors in most of the home with wood burning fireplace (Gas); kitchen with cabinets galore, microwave, refrigerator; large master suite with small study; master bath with his/her master closets; study; beautiful deck; workshop/garage out back (737 sq ft) THIS IS NOT PART OF THE HOME Sq ft) sprinkler system ; pre-wired generator hook-up; privacy fenced backyard. This will sell fast so you better move quick. Call to setup your private showing.

17. 2021-10-20
    historical 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Check out this freshly remodeled 4BR/3BA home with 2793 sq ft in Trace Vineyard of Madison. The entire house was painted and new floors in most of the home with wood burning fireplace (Gas); kitchen with cabinets galore, microwave, refrigerator; large master suite with small study; master bath with his/her master closets; study; beautiful deck; workshop/garage out back (737 sq ft) THIS IS NOT PART OF THE HOME Sq ft) sprinkler system ; pre-wired generator hook-up; privacy fenced backyard. This will sell fast so you better move quick. Call to setup your private showing.

18. 2021-07-24
    listed $366,500 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Check out this freshly remodeled 4BR/3BA home with 2793 sq ft in Trace Vineyard of Madison. The entire house was painted and new floors in most of the home with wood burning fireplace (Gas); kitchen with cabinets galore, microwave, refrigerator; large master suite with small study; master bath with his/her master closets; study; beautiful deck; workshop/garage out back (737 sq ft) THIS IS NOT PART OF THE HOME Sq ft) sprinkler system ; pre-wired generator hook-up; privacy fenced backyard. This will sell fast so you better move quick. Call to setup your private showing.

19. 2011-07-11
    soldstatus
20. 2011-07-04
    historical
21. 2011-01-19
    listed $282,000
22. 2006-05-24
    soldstatus
23. 2006-05-23
    soldstatus
24. 2006-03-27
    listed $249,900
25. 1997-11-17
    soldstatus
26. 1993-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,035 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,035 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$5,035
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,047
• − Management: −$3,047
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$2,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $3,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+28.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $319,900 MLSU
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $410,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-21 Listed $414,000 MLSU
• 2021-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-03 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-07-24 Listed $366,500 MLSU
• 2011-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2011-01-19 Listed $282,000 MLSU
• 2006-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-23 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-03-27 Listed $249,900 MLSU
• 1997-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,035 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.