5733 Garden Valley Rd · Evansville, IN 47630

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1952 0.33 ac lot Est $281k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

RARE FIND IN NEWBURGH. .. FULL FINISHED BASEMENT. .. 4-BEDROOMS. .. Located on a Large Corner Extensively Landscaped Lot Between Newburgh and Evansville. .. 4-Bedrooms (2-Main Floor and 2-Upstairs) + 2-Full Baths. .. Large Eat-In Kitchen with All Appliances. .. Dual Washer/Dryers Sets on Main Floor & Lower Level Included. .. Numerous Upgrades Include Roof 2025, Windows 2022, A/C 2024, Hot Water Heater 2020, Whole House Generator 2025 and Much More. .. 2-Fireplaces in Both the Living Room & Basement Family Room. .. Basement also Features a Private Office and Hobby Room. .. Lots & Lots of Real Hardwood Flooring. .. Tons & Tons of Storage in the Huge Attic Area. .. Larg

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Private office
• Hobby room

Tags

• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• DUAL WASHER DRYERS SETS
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• HOBBY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener; Off-street parking; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Generator for electric; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family, site-built residential home; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition/shingle roof; Block foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Patio; Corner, level, landscaped lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Natural gas heating; Forced air; Floor furnace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Built-in features; Window treatments and blinds; Two fireplaces (living room and family room); Partially finished full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (stacked option noted); Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-406/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Castle South Middle School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #48 of 330 statewide, top 15%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,469 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,228
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5768 Garden Valley Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-0%)	4mo	$280,000	$167	88
6000 Glen Oak Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (+2%)	7mo	$325,000	$189	71
5799 Jeffrey Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-2%)	7mo	$125,000	$76	68
5833 Lenbeck Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-7%)	2mo	$222,500	$142	66
5866 Jeffrey Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-6%)	4mo	$180,100	$114	66
10699 Cricklewood Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,747 (+4%)	12mo	$235,000	$135	62
10599 Gettysburg Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-1%)	5mo	$289,000	$173	61
10166 Marquette St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-4%)	1mo	$289,900	$180	54
10744 Willow Creek Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+10%)	11mo	$279,900	$151	54
10555 Brookside Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	10mo	$265,000	$178	54
5988 Willow Brook Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-15%)	9mo	$266,000	$186	50
6077 Grand River Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,930 (+15%)	1mo	$240,000	$124	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-36,676
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $14,665
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $273,923

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5879 Riverwalk Cir Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,600	$1.42	21d	1	0.46mi
6166 River Bluff Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	43d	1	0.47mi
9895 Cove Point Ct Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	21d	1	0.50mi
10611 Gettysburg Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,200	$0.99	43d	1	0.63mi
4920 Penrose Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	43d	1	0.88mi
10686 Fall Creek Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,950	$1.36	13d	1	0.89mi
4799 Imperial Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,975	$1.44	43d	1	0.97mi
7501 E Powell Ave Evansville, IN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 683-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,900 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #15047

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 146,793
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $279,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,061 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.