3107 Stonewall St · Houston, TX 77020

$354,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,645 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning TWO-STORY Home with PRIVATE DRIVEWAY, DOWNTON HOUSTON VIEWS and SPACIOUS BACKYARD – 3107 Stonewall st Welcome to this charming two-story home, offering a perfect blend of comfort and convenience. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this property provides ample living space ideal for modern living. The home boasts breathtaking VIEWS OF DOWNTOWN HOUSTON, offering a picturesque backdrop right from your own home. Enjoy a PRIVATE DRIVEWAY and a HUGE BACKYARD (fits a pool), perfect for outdoor gatherings or enjoying the beautiful Texas weather. The home is just minutes away from Downtown, giving you easy access to the city’s best dining, shopping, and entertainment

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Private driveway
• 2,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• DOWNTOWN HOUSTON VIEWS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: New construction

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); East-facing
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026; Built by Oracle City Homes
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced private yard; Paved driveway; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Pantry; Quartz counters; Pots & pan drawers; Kitchen/dining and kitchen/family room layouts
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (16x14); Second-floor bedroom (11x11); Second-floor bedroom (11x11)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Quartz counters; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $354,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,343/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,287 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,540
• List price: $354,900
• Delta: 0.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3109 Stonewall St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,645 (0%)	3mo	$349,900	$213	97
3616 Market St	0.32mi	3/3.0	1,607 (-2%)	2mo	$325,000	$202	78
711 Schwartz St	0.44mi	3/3.5	1,692 (+3%)	2mo	$309,000	$183	69
659 Press St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,682 (+2%)	2mo	$299,900	$178	64
1913 West St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,750 (+6%)	0mo	$387,000	$221	61
3605 New Orleans St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,884 (+14%)	1mo	$374,900	$199	57
3202 Quitman St	0.70mi	3/3.5	1,700 (+3%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	56
1715 Mary St	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,877 (+14%)	2mo	$369,900	$197	45
2947 Clinton Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-11%)	3mo	$349,000	$239	44
1717 Mary St	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,877 (+14%)	3mo	$369,900	$197	43
2915 Clinton Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	2mo	$289,000	$201	43
1739 Mary St	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,877 (+14%)	3mo	$369,900	$197	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $157,886
• Equity at exit: $318,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $501,166
• Equity at exit: $686,851

Cash invested: $98,991 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,854
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,303/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,093

Max offer price $267,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-348	-5% $-470	+0% $-592	+5% $-715	+10% $-837
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-685	+0% $-592	+5% $-500	+10% $-407
Rate	-1.0pp $-414	-0.5pp $-502	base $-592	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,385
• Closing costs: $10,606
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.08mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.09mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.12mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.17mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.37mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$2,922	$1.47	0d	1	0.43mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	0.44mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.46mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.48mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	0.55mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	0.58mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.58mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.58mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.68mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.80mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	0d	69	0.85mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	21d	16	0.85mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	2d	19	0.86mi
1550 Leona St Unit 1587 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,942	$1.72	44d	1	0.91mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	0.93mi
650 McKee St Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,074	$1.83	0d	1	0.96mi
650 McKee St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,114	$1.86	12d	1	0.96mi
650 McKee St Unit 683 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,125	$1.87	44d	1	0.96mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	0d	14	1.00mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	1.00mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	1.00mi
1550 Burnett St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,108	$2.40	0d	37	1.01mi
2115 Runnels St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,775	$1.69	44d	1	1.05mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	0d	1	1.05mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	12d	1	1.05mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	13d	1	1.05mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,005	$1.63	0d	1	1.05mi
2315 Navigation Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	943	$3,500	$3.71	0d	62	1.15mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	6d	1	1.19mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	8d	1	1.19mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,321	$1.77	0d	1	1.19mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2441 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,280	$1.74	0d	1	1.19mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	1.22mi
2104 Canal St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,311	$1.25	13d	1	1.25mi
2104 Canal St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,311	$1.25	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $354,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $354,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $354,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $354,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $354,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    status Active 842-char remark
14. 2026-05-08
    status Pending 842-char remark
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $354,900 Active 842-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    historical
17. 2026-04-02
    price $354,900
18. 2026-04-02
    listed $354,900 Active
19. 2026-04-02
    historical
20. 2026-03-16
    price $355,000
21. 2026-03-13
    listed $359,900 Active
22. 2026-03-13
    historical
23. 2026-02-20
    listed $359,900 Active
24. 2026-02-20
    historical
25. 2026-01-30
    listed $359,900 Active
26. 2026-01-30
    historical
27. 2026-01-29
    status Active
28. 2025-11-05
    status Pending
29. 2025-10-21
    price $359,900
30. 2025-10-15
    historical
31. 2025-10-15
    listed $349,900 Active
32. 2025-09-24
    listed $349,900 Active
33. 2025-09-24
    historical
34. 2025-09-04
    listed $349,900 Active
35. 2025-09-04
    historical
36. 2025-08-13
    listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,804
• − Property taxes: −$5,303
• − Insurance: −$1,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$10,285
• Taxable loss: −$13,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $354,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $349,900 HARMLS