1033 S Paula Ave · Springfield, MO 65804

$189,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1969 10,019 sqft lot Est $223k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, one-owner ranch-style home in the heart of Springfield! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors throughout most of the home and offers two separate living areas--perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating a home office. The spacious backyard is ideal for kids, pets, or enjoying your morning coffee or evening BBQ. A newer roof, just 3 years old, provides added peace of mind. Conveniently located less than 5 miles from shopping, dining, and local favorites including Costco, Sam's Club, Andy's Frozen Custard, and Hickory Hills Country Club. With easy access to Highway 65 and I-44, commuting is a breeze. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Newer roof
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($51/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pittman Elem. (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 219 students, 66% FRL); Hickory Hills Middle (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 414 students, 46% FRL); Glendale High (math 21% / reading 55%, grade F, #290 of 521 statewide, top 56%, 1,307 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,553 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1033 S Paula Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,309 (0%)	1mo	$189,500	$145	99
1116 S Paula Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,251 (-4%)	1mo	$225,000	$180	87
1027 S Karla Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+10%)	1mo	$257,900	$179	70
2918 E Monroe Ter	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,229 (-6%)	2mo	$209,000	$170	68
514 S Prince Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,316 (+0%)	2mo	$220,000	$167	63
1249 S Belcrest Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,132 (-14%)	2mo	$235,000	$208	61
639 S Old Orchard Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-3%)	1mo	$119,000	$94	61
726 S Abbey Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+5%)	1mo	$255,900	$185	59
1253 S Belcrest Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-14%)	2mo	$219,000	$193	59
1263 S Cedarbrook Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-12%)	1mo	$169,900	$147	55
620 S Belcrest Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-11%)	2mo	$94,900	$82	52
823 S Mission Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+14%)	3mo	$229,900	$153	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,132
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,636
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65804

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,443/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 S Ingram Mill Rd Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$2,345	$2.04	14d	4	0.38mi
3080 E Cherry St Unit H104-ADA Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,565	$1.52	44d	1	0.44mi
3080 E Cherry St Unit F104-ADA Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,500	$1.46	23d	1	0.44mi
3440 E Lombard St Unit 129 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	23d	1	0.45mi
3440 E Lombard St Unit 110 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	44d	1	0.45mi
3501 E Lombard St Springfield, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,065	$1.33	44d	1	0.50mi
1528 S Catalina Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,440	$1.09	44d	1	0.61mi
2765 E Verona St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,600	$1.29	44d	1	0.66mi
1603 S Saint Charles Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	0.73mi
2641 E Verona St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	23d	1	0.76mi
2804 E Linwood St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	14d	1	0.76mi
2831 E University St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	23d	1	0.88mi
2831 E University St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	14d	1	0.88mi
3700 E Cherry St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	14d	1	0.97mi
1920 S Mayfair Ave Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	1440	$1,895	$1.32	23d	1	1.06mi
2848 E Eastmoor Dr Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,725	$1.10	14d	1	1.13mi
1940 S Ingram Mill Rd Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	14d	1	1.21mi
2146 E Bennett St Unit 0 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1009	$895	$0.89	44d	1	1.25mi
2149 E Sunshine St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	671	$1,453	$2.17	14d	20	1.38mi
2122 S Barcliff Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	900	$1,095	$1.22	14d	3	1.40mi
531 N Oak Grove Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1184	$925	$0.78	44d	1	1.42mi
2154 E Cairo St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $189,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,838 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$1,443
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$3,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 40,935
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.81%
• Current HPI: 197.8418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-25 Listed $189,500 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,443 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.