300 S Walnut St · Holliday, TX 76366

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1960 $68/sqft · 40% below area Est $125k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home built in 1960! Full of character and potential, this corner lot, fixer-upper is ready for your vision and personal touch. Spacious layout with large rooms, plenty of natural light, and solid bones make it a great investment or renovation project. Whether you’re looking to flip, rent, or create your dream home, in Holliday ISD this property offers endless possibilities.

Key facts

• Built 1960
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Asbestos and wood siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Interior features: Gas fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#420 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Holliday ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #66 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Holliday El (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 512 students, 24% FRL); Holliday Middle (math 58% / reading 57%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 273 students, 21% FRL); Holliday H S (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 352 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.74%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,682
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -39.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 S Cedar St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-1%)	13mo	$127,000	$117	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $44,722
• Equity at exit: $48,280

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $114,060
• Equity at exit: $88,547

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76366

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $367	+0% $345	+5% $324	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $303	+0% $345	+5% $388	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $364	base $345	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $75,000 Active 429-char remark
18. 2000-08-08
    soldstatus
19. 1997-06-16
    soldstatus
20. 1997-06-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 54.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holliday ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823400
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,523
• Composite: 51.19/100
• National rank: #1757
• State rank: #66 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holliday

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #8631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holliday, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Archer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,158 people
• By 2030: 7,855 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,120 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 6,320 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 4,842 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 3,527 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Archer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.1% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+79.4 2012: R+73.8 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.24%
• Current HPI: 161.0661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $75,000 WFAOR
• 2000-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.