3500 S Tomahawk Rd #217 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$119,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $84k · 43% over ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the sunshine and a carefree life in this gated 55+ community. Many, tastefully done upgrades to this unit in 2023! This ground set unit has elegant cement work and landing allowing easy access. It offers a bright and airy open plan. The kitchen has a butcher block island with ample storage; dining is just off the kitchen with open access to the living room. All appliances are included. There is attractive laminate and vinyl flooring throughout. The master is large and provides closet organizers, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower in the master bath. It has a handy utility area that includes the washer and dryer. Savor out/door living in the screened in AZ room. Exterior is repainted wit

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fenced yard
• Utility area

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• CLOSET ORGANIZERS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• UTILITY AREA
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: Appraiser
• Financial info: Monthly land lease fee: $845.22
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease fee; No association fees included; Community pool; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition and rolled/hot mop roofing
• Exterior features: Storage; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $828 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,380 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.64%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #188	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$75,000	$60	93
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #153	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	88
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+11%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	75
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #13	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	2mo	$59,000	$41	72
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #46	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	6mo	$57,900	$43	62
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #80	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+13%)	7mo	$95,000	$65	61
3355 S Cortez Rd #66	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,260 (-2%)	7mo	$109,000	$87	58
3355 S Cortez Rd #98	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,356 (+5%)	6mo	$110,000	$81	56
2359 S Tomahawk Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,297 (+1%)	5mo	$170,000	$131	56
2400 E Baseline Ave #125	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,376 (+7%)	1mo	$82,900	$60	55
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #181	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	4mo	$125,000	$104	54
2400 E Baseline Ave #181	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+13%)	5mo	$148,000	$102	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $21,758
• Equity at exit: $17,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $64,681
• Equity at exit: $10,354

Cash invested: $33,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$628
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,796/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $119,750

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $771	-5% $730	+0% $689	+5% $647	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $537	-5% $613	+0% $689	+5% $764	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $719	base $689	+0.5pp $658	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,938
• Closing costs: $3,592
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	7d	1	0.35mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	13d	1	0.37mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	5d	1	0.42mi
1510 E 26th Ln Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,550	$1.34	0d	1	0.56mi
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	26d	1	0.57mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	26d	1	0.57mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	26d	1	0.59mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	26d	1	0.92mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	7d	1	0.93mi
705 E Kachina Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,655	$1.90	7d	1	1.24mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	26d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,750 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,750 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,750 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,750 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,750 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,750 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,750 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,750 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,750 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,750 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,750 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,750 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,750 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,750 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    price $119,750
16. 2026-01-15
    listed $124,900 Active
17. 2025-02-25
    historical
18. 2025-01-25
    listed $149,000 Active
19. 2024-05-01
    historical
20. 2024-04-01
    price $149,900
21. 2024-03-10
    price $154,500
22. 2024-01-10
    price $159,900
23. 2023-12-05
    status Active
24. 2023-11-28
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
25. 2023-11-17
    listed $164,900 Active
26. 2023-10-01
    historical
27. 2023-08-28
    status Active
28. 2023-07-26
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
29. 2023-06-23
    listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,708
• − Property taxes: −$1,796
• − Insurance: −$599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$3,484
• Taxable income: $6,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $6,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-27.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $119,750 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Listed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2024-03-10 Price Changed $154,500 ARMLS
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-11-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $164,900 ARMLS
• 2023-10-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $164,900 ARMLS