1450 W Kaibab Ln #11 · Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 315 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition $81/sqft · 37% below area Est $119k · 37% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Private side yard
• Flagstone patio

Tags

• FLAGSTONE PATIO
• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FULLY TRANSFERRABLE WARRANTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.4% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Weitzel'S Puente De Hozho Bilingual Magnet School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 438 students, 42% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 281 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.78%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,617
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -36.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 W Kaibab Ln Lot 157	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	937 (+1%)	5mo	$124,500	$133	88
1450 W Kaibab Ln #62	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (-3%)	9mo	$95,000	$106	87
1450 W Kaibab Ln #158	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (-9%)	9mo	$93,000	$111	77
1450 W Kaibab Ln #91	0.15mi	2/2.0	952 (+3%)	16mo	$80,000	$84	75
1450 W Kaibab Ln #147	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+13%)	6mo	$85,000	$82	72
1450 W Kaibab Ln #110	0.15mi	2/1.0	896 (-3%)	19mo	$57,000	$64	68
1450 W Kaibab Ln #131	0.15mi	2/1.5	840 (-9%)	19mo	$60,000	$71	60
1450 W Kaibab Ln #59	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	798 (-14%)	10mo	$99,500	$125	60
1460 W Kaibab Ln #111	0.20mi	2/2.0	992 (+7%)	22mo	$112,000	$113	60
1450 W Kaibab Ln #77	0.15mi	2/1.0	786 (-15%)	12mo	$60,000	$76	54
1658 W Sherrie Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$385,000	$365	42
2401 W Route 66 Dr #66	0.70mi	2/2.0	868 (-6%)	22mo	$161,500	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $50,858
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $112,445
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86001

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $1,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,119	-5% $1,093	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,015
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $985	+0% $1,067	+5% $1,150	+10% $1,232
Rate	-1.0pp $1,105	-0.5pp $1,086	base $1,067	+0.5pp $1,048	+1.0pp $1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1580 S Plaza Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,455	$2.81	45d	12	0.40mi
1515 S Yale St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,740	$2.02	45d	6	0.46mi
700 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,735	$2.57	45d	1	0.50mi
1200 S Riordan Ranch St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	528	$1,525	$2.89	45d	1	0.57mi
923 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,304	$2.63	45d	36	0.61mi
813 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	567	$1,840	$3.25	45d	1	0.63mi
1385 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	906	$1,725	$1.90	45d	3	0.65mi
1000 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	947	$1,925	$2.03	45d	1	0.66mi
607 W Tucson Ave Unit 4 Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	660	$1,400	$2.12	45d	1	0.73mi
800 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,548	$3.01	45d	32	0.78mi
927 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,806	$2.93	45d	11	0.81mi
1830 S Milton Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$2,129	$3.06	45d	23	0.89mi
412 S San Francisco St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	604	$1,900	$3.15	45d	1	1.06mi
319 N Park St Unit G Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	45d	1	1.20mi
600 W University Heights Dr N Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,254	$2.94	45d	4	1.28mi
605 S Lone Tree Rd Unit 4 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	756	$1,650	$2.18	45d	1	1.30mi
201 S Elden St Unit 10 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$2,099	$2.62	45d	1	1.30mi
2701 S Woody Mountain Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$2,642	$2.45	45d	77	1.35mi
3200 S Litzler Dr Unit 9-236 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	776	$1,800	$2.32	45d	1	1.38mi
601 E Piccadilly Dr Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$3,192	$2.98	45d	24	1.48mi
2292 S Alvan Clark Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,473	$1.51	45d	12	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 307 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 306 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 295 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 294 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 293 DOM
19. 2026-04-27
    price $75,000 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

20. 2026-02-27
    status Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

21. 2025-12-23
    price $84,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

22. 2025-09-16
    price $89,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

23. 2025-07-30
    listed $95,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open living, dining, and kitchen layout on a large lot with only one neighboring property. Enjoy the flagstone patio in the private side yard, and rest easy with a brand-new roof under a fully transferrable warranty. Home is on leased land in Summit Pines with a month lot rent fee. Buyers must apply and be approved by Summit Pines Community before submitting an offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,975
• After-tax cash flow: $9,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and fresh paint. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both update exterior lighting — enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both update exterior lighting — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,312
• Household income: $64,626
• Rent vs Own: 63.2% rent · 36.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3117.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 15% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.37%
• Current HPI: 393.2551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $75,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — NAZMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $84,900 NAZMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $89,900 NAZMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $95,000 NAZMLS