Wells II B Plan · Walker, LA 70726

$236,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 486 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Two Car Garage - Brick, Stucco, and Siding Exterior - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen - Walk-In Master Closet - Double Vanity in Master Bath - Separate Master Shower

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Open floor plan
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• WALK-IN MASTER CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $236,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,631.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,847 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,631
• List price: $236,990
• Delta: -2.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11465 Rossow Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (+4%)	1mo	$242,000	$150	81
25729 Raines Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	1mo	$235,990	$151	78
25680 Tarver Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	0mo	$237,660	$152	77
25692 Tarver Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	0mo	$236,245	$151	76
11586 Water View Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (+4%)	1mo	$240,000	$149	75
25662 Tarver Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	2mo	$236,110	$151	74
25730 Raines Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (+5%)	1mo	$243,655	$150	67
25669 Tarver Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-4%)	1mo	$239,985	$161	66
12656 Bald Eagle Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-2%)	3mo	$268,999	$177	63
25710 Tarver Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-6%)	3mo	$228,990	$157	61
25710 Tarver Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-6%)	3mo	$228,990	$157	61
12652 Brown Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,669 (+8%)	3mo	$275,000	$165	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,447
• Equity at exit: $36,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,161
• Equity at exit: $21,065

Cash invested: $68,217 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,654/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $228,454

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-21	+0% $-105	+5% $-189	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-184	+0% $-105	+5% $-26	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-43	base $-105	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,908
• Closing costs: $7,309
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11402 Ashwood Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,750	$1.31	22d	1	0.32mi
11385 Ashwood Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	0.35mi
25717 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	20d	1	0.44mi
25729 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	16d	1	0.44mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.44mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	16d	1	0.44mi
25729 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	25d	1	0.44mi
25662 Tarver St , LA	4.0	2.0	1570	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	0.53mi
24585 Fair Weather Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.96mi
11327 Shady Bnd Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,150	$1.08	16d	1	0.98mi
11247 Westwood Ave Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	1.25mi
11342 Woodlore Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,500	$0.99	16d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $236,990 Active 486 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,990 Active 483 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,990 Active 482 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,990 Active 481 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,990 Active 480 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $236,990 Active 478 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,990 Active 477 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $236,990 Active 475 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,990 Active 473 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,990 Active 472 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,990 Active 468 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,990 Active 467 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,990 Active 466 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,990 Active 465 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,990 Active 464 DOM
16. 2025-02-20
    listed $236,990 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Two Car Garage - Brick, Stucco, and Siding Exterior - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen - Walk-In Master Closet - Double Vanity in Master Bath - Separate Master Shower

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,647
• − Property taxes: −$3,654
• − Insurance: −$1,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$7,087
• Taxable loss: −$5,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate rehab needed, primarily focusing on landscaping and driveway maintenance. Adding landscaping and cleaning the driveway would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — No visible landscaping
• Minor Driveway — Cars parked in driveway

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Driveway cleaning — Keeps the property looking clean and well-maintained

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · No visible landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Driveway · Cars parked in driveway	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Driveway cleaning — Keeps the property looking clean and well-maintained ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 10,403
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-20 Listed $236,990 Zillow