115 N Larry Dr · Callaway, FL 32404

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2019 9,670 sqft lot Est $194k · 13% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 115 N Larry Drive! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and outdoor living. Relax and enjoy your morning coffee on the spacious covered front porch or unwind in the evenings on the large covered back porch overlooking the fenced backyard. The property features two large storage buildings, providing plenty of space for tools, equipment, hobbies, or additional storage needs. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and room for pets, play, or entertaining. Conveniently located just 7 miles from Tyndall Air Force Base and only 15 miles from the beautiful white-sand beaches of Panama City Beach, this home is ideal for milita

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fenced backyard
• Covered back porch

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• PRIVACY AND ROOM FOR PETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short term rental allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Construction: Lot dimensions approximately 135 x 75; Lot size about 0.22 acres
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Shed(s); Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level (each approximately 10 x 11); Primary/third room on the first level (approximately 16 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Main level primary

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,795 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,040
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6904 Cherry St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	17mo	$176,000	$126	50
7207 Cherry St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	10mo	$155,900	$94	49
7013 Lisa Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	3mo	$283,000	$211	44
410 N Katherine Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+9%)	16mo	$135,000	$80	40
124 Big Oak Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-7%)	22mo	$180,000	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,607
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,136
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $261	+0% $199	+5% $136	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $124	+0% $199	+5% $273	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $255	base $199	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	0.23mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	14d	1	0.25mi
163 Lauren Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,300	$1.33	22d	1	0.31mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	14d	1	0.37mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	22d	1	0.41mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	22d	1	0.42mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	22d	1	0.44mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	0.59mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	22d	1	0.69mi
5817 Jasmine Ct Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	1633	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	0.73mi
5717 Rebecca Ct Unit B Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,350	$0.84	22d	1	0.84mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	22d	1	0.87mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	14d	1	0.94mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	14d	1	0.99mi
263 Nelle Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,690	$1.31	22d	1	1.08mi
907 Lee Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$2,100	$0.99	22d	1	1.09mi
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	22d	1	1.11mi
7727 Betty Louise Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,950	$1.36	22d	1	1.13mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	22d	1	1.13mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	1.15mi
7709 Betty Louise Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	22d	1	1.18mi
211 Sukoshi Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,900	$1.26	22d	1	1.20mi
133 Red Bay Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	2208	$2,500	$1.13	22d	1	1.37mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	22d	1	1.39mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 146 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$20,000	$13.02	22d	1	1.50mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 56 Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1216	$35,000	$28.78	22d	1	1.50mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot V Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$30,000	$26.04	22d	1	1.50mi
1128 S Gay Ave Lot 86 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$94,995	$78.12	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,350/yr (+$113/mo · 283.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $220,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.