2315 New Orchard Ct · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Townhouse · 511 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1995 Good condition 1,727 sqft lot $151/sqft · 28% below area Est $236k · 28% under $656/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in the sought-after Nantucket III community of Kings Point, Sun City Center! This freshly painted and charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 1-car garage offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Nestled near a quiet cul-de-sac, this property boasts a slight pond view and a brick-paved driveway that enhances its curb appeal. Inside, you'll love the high ceilings and open layout with new flooring, that make the home feel spacious and inviting. The Florida room is a standout feature, with large windows providing panoramic views of a retired golf course, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen, complete with a bar, opens to the living and dining areas, making it easy to stay connected with family and guests. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, making this home ideal for hosting visitors or enjoying quiet retreats. A/C unit replaced 8/23, Hot Water Heater replaced 10/24. You’ll love the gated community of Kings Point, which has amazing facilities, pools, clubs and events just waiting for you to enjoy. Located between Sarasota and Tampa, this home is perfectly positioned for a convenient ride to airports, great shopping, dining, and professional entertainment. With easy access to award-winning, sandy beaches, you’ll experience the best of all worlds—without the stress of big city life. Leave the hustle behind and embrace a new chapter in Sun City Center, Florida, the state's top-ranked and most affordable 55+ retirement community. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Brick paved driveway
• Slight pond view

Tags

• SLIGHT POND VIEW
• BRICK PAVED DRIVEWAY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• AWARD WINNING BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (28.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 511 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,139 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 511 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.50%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,395
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -28.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2012 Nantucket Dr #22	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,260 (+12%)	0mo	$197,400	$157	76
1006 Radison Lake Ct #62	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,284 (+14%)	5mo	$220,000	$171	54
2082 Sifield Greens Way #3	0.80mi	2/2.0	1,206 (+7%)	0mo	$230,000	$191	53
1252 Lyndhurst Greens Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+17%)	0mo	$217,000	$165	44
2040 Sifield Greens Way #2040	0.85mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (+15%)	0mo	$190,000	$147	35
2193 Acadia Greens Dr #1	0.78mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,301 (+16%)	0mo	$218,000	$168	35
2102 Holyhead Way	0.93mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	19mo	$199,000	$159	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-49,225
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-71,449
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $184,900 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +46.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$656
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $121,139

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-278	+0% $-337	+5% $-396	+10% $-454
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-412	+0% $-337	+5% $-262	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-294	base $-337	+0.5pp $-381	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1106 Jameson Greens Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,950	$1.81	23d	1	0.35mi
1415 Langley Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$1,650	$1.21	33d	1	0.39mi
1161 Jameson Greens Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,900	$1.47	73d	1	0.45mi
2221 Ivan Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,975	$1.33	23d	1	0.59mi
2124 Hailstone Cir Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	73d	1	0.69mi
2117 Harleston Pl Unit 2117 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$2,500	$1.73	73d	1	0.71mi
2006 Hampstead Cir Unit N/A Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	73d	1	0.79mi
2102 Hereford Dr #513 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	73d	1	0.82mi
2068 Sifield Greens Way Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,000	$1.41	16d	1	0.82mi
2011 Hadrian Ct Unit 2011 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	13d	1	0.84mi
1256 Corinth Greens Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,150	$1.48	64d	1	0.89mi
704 Tremont Greens Ln Unit 107 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,700	$1.75	73d	1	0.99mi
2052 Inverness Greens Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,100	$1.53	73d	1	1.06mi
1902 Dandridge St #12 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,495	$1.87	63d	1	1.09mi
1309 Fairway Greens Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	73d	1	1.13mi
323 Knottwood Ct Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,290	$1.42	73d	1	1.24mi
323 Knottwood Ct #1 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,090	$1.20	54d	1	1.24mi
2345 Glenmore Cir Unit 294 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,500	$1.52	73d	1	1.29mi
302 Canton Ct #62 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,495	$1.87	38d	1	1.30mi
110 Gloucester Blvd Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,950	$1.72	47d	1	1.32mi
110 Gloucester Blvd Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,950	$1.72	73d	1	1.32mi
1902 Andover St #203 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	7d	1	1.34mi
2313 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,889	$1.35	7d	1	1.35mi
2304 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,970	$1.54	52d	1	1.36mi
1103 Villeroy Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	60d	1	1.40mi
1907 Canterbury Ln Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$1,475	$1.52	29d	2	1.40mi
3402 Salt Air Dr Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,051	$1.93	7d	39	1.43mi
301 Kings Blvd #138 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	1020	$1,600	$1.57	16d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail $656/mo · $7,872/yr

• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 511 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $169,900 Active 509 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $169,900 Active 508 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 507 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 503 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $169,900 Active 500 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $169,900 Active 498 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $169,900 Active 496 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $169,900 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $169,900 Active 494 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $169,900 Active 493 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $169,900 Active 492 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $169,900 Active 489 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $169,900 Active 488 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $169,900 Active 487 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 485 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 484 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $169,900 Active 483 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $169,900 Active 482 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 481 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 479 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 478 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 477 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 476 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 475 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 474 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 473 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 472 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $169,900 Active 471 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,900 Active 470 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $169,900 Active 469 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $169,900 Active 468 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $169,900 Active 466 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $169,900 Active 464 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $169,900 Active 463 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $169,900 Active 460 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $169,900 Active 459 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $169,900 Active 458 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $179,900 Active 457 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $179,900 Active 455 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $179,900 Active 454 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,900 Active 451 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 450 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 449 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 446 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 445 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 444 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 443 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − HOA: −$7,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$6,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,625–$16,875 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo in Sun City Center is in good condition with fresh paint and new flooring. It offers a spacious and inviting living area with a Florida room and a brick-paved driveway. The property is in a sought-after community with a pond view and access to amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Increases value and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves airflow ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cypress Creek Elementary School F FL #1,491/2,144 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Listed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid