623 County Road 786 · Evadale, TX 77612

$69,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 389 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $45/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER A ONE ACRE LOT! Welcome to 623 County Road 786 in Buna, TX, this property is a fixer-upper opportunity situated on a 1-acre lot. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and does not include a garage. Highlighted for its spacious yard, this home is ideal for families and pets, offering easy access to HWY 96 and a 35-minute commute to Beaumont. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• One acre lot
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 96

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Buna ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.03%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,639
• List price: $69,999
• Delta: -78.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $29,243
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $77,691
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77612

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $69,999 Pending 389 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,999 Active 388 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,999 Active 386 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,999 Active 385 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,999 Active 383 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,999 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,999 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,999 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,999 Active 376 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,999 Active 375 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,999 Active 374 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,999 Active 373 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,999 Active 372 DOM
14. 2025-06-04
    status Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    FIXER UPPER A ONE ACRE LOT! Welcome to 623 County Road 786 in Buna, TX, this property is a fixer-upper opportunity situated on a 1-acre lot. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and does not include a garage. Highlighted for its spacious yard, this home is ideal for families and pets, offering easy access to HWY 96 and a 35-minute commute to Beaumont. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

15. 2025-04-05
    status Pending 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    FIXER UPPER A ONE ACRE LOT! Welcome to 623 County Road 786 in Buna, TX, this property is a fixer-upper opportunity situated on a 1-acre lot. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and does not include a garage. Highlighted for its spacious yard, this home is ideal for families and pets, offering easy access to HWY 96 and a 35-minute commute to Beaumont. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2025-03-24
    listed $69,999 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    FIXER UPPER A ONE ACRE LOT! Welcome to 623 County Road 786 in Buna, TX, this property is a fixer-upper opportunity situated on a 1-acre lot. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and does not include a garage. Highlighted for its spacious yard, this home is ideal for families and pets, offering easy access to HWY 96 and a 35-minute commute to Beaumont. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information about the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2024-09-05
    soldstatus
18. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 209.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,658
• After-tax cash flow: $5,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,815
• Composite: 35.83/100
• National rank: #4826
• State rank: #342 of 826 in TX

Livability — Evadale

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 256
• Population (ZIP): 9,152

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.14%
• Current HPI: 168.7562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $69,999 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $414 · -31.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.