23 Nelson Cir · Jackson, MS 39212

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1970 1.13 ac lot Est $160k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, well-maintained home nestled on a peaceful 1.13-acre corner lot with mature shade trees, wonderful neighbors, and a private, country-style setting while still being convenient to town! Loved and cared for by the same owners for approximately 30 years, this property is ready for its next chapter. Perfect for a young family, first-time buyer, or anyone looking for extra space inside and out! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features larger-than-average bedrooms, a comfortable floor plan, a walk-in shower in the primary bath, and a jetted tub in the hall bath. Step outside and enjoy the relaxing screened back patio, overlooking a beautifully maintained yard with a raised garden bed ready

Key facts

• Raised garden
• Large trees
• Shop in the back

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE TREES
• SCREENED IN BACK PATIO
• RAISED GARDEN
• SHOP IN THE BACK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Street lights; Community remarks available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached, enclosed 2-car garage with garage door opener; Garage faces side; Paved parking
• Security: Dead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Post-tension slab foundation; Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Post-tension and slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built in (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Patio (screened); Private, fenced backyard; Corner lot with some trees and a front yard; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Double oven
• Flooring: Laminate or simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in electric range, cooktop, dishwasher, disposal, double oven; Fireplace in the living room; Dead bolt locks; Move-in ready; Accessible approach with ramp

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Timberlawn Elementary School (math 5% / reading 11%, grade F, #334 of 375 statewide, top 89%, 353 students, 100% FRL); Bailey Middle Apac School (math 46% / reading 62%, grade B-, #18 of 179 statewide, top 10%, 247 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,424 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,500
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Belle Chasse Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+5%)	12mo	$252,000	$165	65
248 Ramada Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+12%)	2mo	$178,000	$110	52
1436 Lakeview Ave	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	18mo	$114,990	$82	49
247 Ramada Cir	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	15mo	$171,900	$110	45
4080 Lake Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+15%)	4mo	$60,000	$36	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,037
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,796
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $159	+0% $104	+5% $50	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $45	+0% $104	+5% $164	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $145	base $104	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1478 Bass Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,525	$1.47	15d	1	0.45mi
1457 Lakeview Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,426	$1.11	15d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $158,000 Active
2. 1996-04-04
   soldstatus
3. 1972-04-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $158,000 MLSU
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1972-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $201 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.